Podcast 271

Gas Oil Collapse. Energy and Oil and Politics. We may be at the beginning of the end of an era in the energy markets, politics and economic policy but people are never going to figure it out with the terrible job the media is doing reporting on these topics. Gas is below two dollars in 13 states, crude trading at 55 dollars a barrel, with more drops expected. Meanwhile, OPEC refuses to cut production, even refuses to hold a meeting to discuss it. The drop in oil over the last few months of 40 percent so far, most of it in the last two months is beginning to have an effect. OPEC’s price war on Frackers in the US, Canada and Brazil, the international version of a gas war, is beginning to have economic and political effects. When the cheerleaders talk about oil ‘acting like a tax cut’, remember there is a lot more to this story. If energy production in the US is a big piece of the manufacturing boom, what happens when lower prices curtails exploration? Will lower oil and gas prices still act like a tax cut? What about disinflation, or outright deflation in commodity prices? What about dropping demand due to economic slow downs in China, Europe, and Latin America? Do you think the US is ‘decoupled’ from the rest of the world’s economies? On Wall Street, the story is completely different. There, investors are moving money from the market to long term Treasury Bonds, an indication of expected weakness? Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve will be hard pressed to raise interest rates (which its wants, and perhaps needs to do) in the face of declining commodity prices. This isn’t just an international problem. A Minnesota State Legislator wants to reduce farm property taxes, due to the decreased revenues farmers are seeing on their crops. As the sun sets on the Democrat Senate Majority, and rises on a huge Republican majority in the US Congress as well as state legislatures and governor’s mansions, we’re also about to enter a new era in politics, or perhaps close an old one. How will the last two years of the Obama administration differ from the previous 6? Despite the President’s progressive rhetoric, does the budget deal indicate will be a little different when it comes to horse trading with Congress? Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating and Depotstar. 

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The Bob Davis Podcast

Podcast 268

Not 1995! Lots of stories in the news about real estate and consumer culture, and the state of retail. Its starting to feel like the business models that have propelled us from the 90’s aren’t working so well anymore. Now analysts wonder why millennials aren’t buying homes. Zillow theorizes that people are trapped in a high rent situation that prevents them from saving for a home down payment. There’s a greater question though. While we have been subjected to one rosy scenario after another about housing’s comeback — which really hasn’t materialized —  when repairs, taxes, assessments, interest and other costs of home loans over thirty years are considered, do you think owning really that much economical? With millennials burdened by student loans, the specter of higher lifetime social security costs and poor quality employment, is anyone really that surprised they’re not in the home buying mood? Then, when you consider higher spending and debt levels, and the pension commitments for state and local governments, would you say you think taxes will be going down, or up? Potential buyers are also factoring this in, and the cost of the urban utopia created by subsidies, federal spending and higher taxation. Finally, have you priced homes in these urban utopias millennials supposedly want to live in? By the way, a new survey says the one thing people ‘blow’ their budget on these days is eating out, all the more expensive in the ‘urban utopia’, ruled by broke hipsters. When millennials finally do start families, they’ll be looking in the suburbs for housing because its more affordable. Then there’s the retail question. This week congress decided not to tax purchases made on the Internet, much to the chagrin of retailers that have been manhandling their legislators to push for a tax to ‘even the playing field’. More and more there are examples of how retailers want to use law and licensing to fence off competition. Meanwhile their business models suck. Poor service, high prices, snooty attitudes; It’s no wonder people want to buy things on line. Uber’s fight to get into Portland and New York City are just two examples; There taxi drivers try to fence off competition by selling ‘licenses’ rather than providing a service people want. We’re on the cusp of big changes when it comes to consumer culture in America, and it’s a good thing. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul and by Depotstar. 

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Podcast 262

White Line Fever. Road Trip Return! The trip back to Minneapolis, staying in the warmth of the southern late fall for as long as possible. Richmond, southwest to Roanoke, Virginia and then onto Nashville, Tennessee. Passing through Bristol, Virginia and Knoxville, Tennessee and all points in between. You know all that talk about ‘infrastructure’ in the US? How we need new roads and bridges? With many miles covered on these Road Trip Podcasts, there have been few – if any – pot-holes, rotted bridges, or signs of any crumbling infrastructure. Even cities like Bristol, Virginia and Roanoke feature new construction, smooth roads, brand spanking new housing developments, and new and thriving downtown ‘urban’ experiences like Farmer’s Markets, yoga studios and the like. There are so many smooth roads you can get ‘white line fever’ rolling through hills and gentle turns, as traffic comfortably hits eighty plus mile an hour speeds. Sounds like a science fiction novel, but it is true. From the Twin Cities east, all the way to Virginia, and now coming back across the mid south, it’s hard to find evidence of ‘decaying infrastructure’, not to mention all the shiny new cars! Hear tips on how to travel fast and easy, avoiding speed traps, and getting a boat load of coffee before departure. As we ease back into the work week after a long Thanksgiving Holiday, some thoughts about what we should be hearing from politicians in Washington; how to make our economy thrive, not just ‘do better’. Traveling across the country this quickly, you can’t help but notice the developing economies of small, medium and large sized cities you pass through, especially outside the center cities. The overall effect is optimism. Americans are still innovative, and ready to work. Its about time our lawmakers understood what to do, how to do it, and how to talk about it so they can get what they need to get done, so we can get done what we need to get done. Sponsored by Baklund R&D.

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