Podcast 452

Jeb’s Baack! With less than a month to go before people actually start voting for candidates to lead their party’s presidential bids in 2016, get ready for the story lines to change. In this first of the year podcast, we get back on the political horse to both warn and speculate on the potential changes in media story lines, which have come to constitute ‘political’ coverage in our time. Our media may think of itself as an informal ‘fourth estate’; an additional fourth branch of government. Fortunately the founders vested sovereign power in the people as represented in three estates of our republic; The legislative, executive and judicial branches. Our media is more like The Borg, or a mob. A faceless, brainless maw that seizes on reactionary story lines, based only on the personality of various politicians, the things they say and outrage generated from it. These form story lines that run until they wear out, or some new outrage is manufactured, or some actual event called ‘news’ happens. The lack of actual journalism and reporting on issues is palpable. The dominant story line that started this political season was that flash in the pan known as Donald Trump. Now that Trump is the dominant candidate on the Republican side, a new story line is being manufactured that says, ‘Hang on, Jeb Bush is going to reemerge’. Given the power and money behind the Republican establishment, don’t be so quick to discount that one. When people start voting, look for candidates to get out. Those who stay in will reap the benefits. On the democrat side, the story line was Hillary Clinton was the inevitable candidate, then Bernie Sanders was going to upset the apple cart, now the story line is what kind of presidency Mrs Clinton will have. Fasten your seat belts; the one constant in politics is change. Sponsored by Pride of Homes and Luke Team Real Estate, and Hydrus Performance. 

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Podcast 405

China Syndrome. As the China Market Meltdown story goes mainstream, it’s pundit tug-o-war between ‘China Doom’ proponents and ‘Nothing To See Here Folks’ adherents. Fun for the media, not so fun if you’re trying to figure out where this might go … could go wrong. Hopefully this podcast will be of some help. We start from the proposition that no one really knows what’s going on in China. It’s possible even the highest people in the Chinese Communist Government don’t really know what’s going on in China. Despite what is being said, there will be winners and losers if China actually does melt down, and surprises along the way. Does an economic collapse in China mean an end to the People’s Republic of China? What might that look like if it does happen? Or, will this problem simply be one of those momentary pauses, fodder for a couple of days relief from political nonsense in the US, before we get back to arguing about Donald Trump’s latest missive, Jeb Bush’s black hand, or Hillary Clinton’s email. It certainly feels like we’re nearing one of those strange historic pivot points, but whether the market meltdown in China, and the angst in markets across the world from Europe and Asia to the United States are in fact, that black swan pivot point. Could be. Hard to tell. Pivot points and Black Swan events don’t fit perfectly into decades, and are hard to predict. Its fun to hear people saying, “I’ve been predicting this for years” after something happens that looks like it could be a black swan event. In fact, historic pivot points have to be something more than just a Black Swan, but something that happens, that afterward people can clearly point to that event as the beginning of ‘when things changed’. One thing is for sure; Hold onto your hats (if you wear one), there is a strong feeling out there that what passes for current events today, may be about to change … for good. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul. 

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