Podcast 405

China Syndrome. As the China Market Meltdown story goes mainstream, it’s pundit tug-o-war between ‘China Doom’ proponents and ‘Nothing To See Here Folks’ adherents. Fun for the media, not so fun if you’re trying to figure out where this might go … could go wrong. Hopefully this podcast will be of some help. We start from the proposition that no one really knows what’s going on in China. It’s possible even the highest people in the Chinese Communist Government don’t really know what’s going on in China. Despite what is being said, there will be winners and losers if China actually does melt down, and surprises along the way. Does an economic collapse in China mean an end to the People’s Republic of China? What might that look like if it does happen? Or, will this problem simply be one of those momentary pauses, fodder for a couple of days relief from political nonsense in the US, before we get back to arguing about Donald Trump’s latest missive, Jeb Bush’s black hand, or Hillary Clinton’s email. It certainly feels like we’re nearing one of those strange historic pivot points, but whether the market meltdown in China, and the angst in markets across the world from Europe and Asia to the United States are in fact, that black swan pivot point. Could be. Hard to tell. Pivot points and Black Swan events don’t fit perfectly into decades, and are hard to predict. Its fun to hear people saying, “I’ve been predicting this for years” after something happens that looks like it could be a black swan event. In fact, historic pivot points have to be something more than just a Black Swan, but something that happens, that afterward people can clearly point to that event as the beginning of ‘when things changed’. One thing is for sure; Hold onto your hats (if you wear one), there is a strong feeling out there that what passes for current events today, may be about to change … for good. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul. 

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Podcast 396

Summer Walk and Talk. The rules of the Walk and Talk Podcast are: No prep. No Planning. You walk. You Talk. Slash and Burn, Walk and Talk. At the peak of the summer it still doesn’t feel right to get down and dirty on the political front. There’s still a sense that the topography of the political battlefield will change at some point, and it will be back to the drawing board for the scores of presidential candidates, who are as plentiful as the corn growing in those Iowa fields. Besides, there’s Sturgis, air shows, local summer celebrations, fireworks, kids playing on the lawn, charcoal fires for steak and so…much…summer. Yet, if you look carefully, the sun has changed its angle slightly and in Minnesota at least, we’re just a month away from the State Fair. Every year, at some point during the state fair, the weather changes and we all know what that means. Fall is coming. So if you’re tweeting and face booking about one of the presidential candidates, watching the 24 hour cable channels religiously, hanging on every word of every shouting match, you’re missing real life going on. While people engaged in the business of politics are busy … the average person in the United States couldn’t care less right now about the latest spat between Mike Huckabee and Jeb Bush, or Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton. Big stories of the summer? The Planned Parenthood video is a doozy. The Chinese stock market collapse (which is being called their 1929) could become the black swan story if the perfumed princes in Beijing can’t get control of things. A calamity like this in Asia would have far reaching implications economically in the US and the world, and in terms of foreign policy. Commodity prices seem to be in a long term slump, and yet some media outlets are talking about inflation. Still, all these potential game-changers are just storm clouds in the west, on a warm summer night. A little lightning on the horizon, and maybe some rain and thunder by dawn. The romance of summer supersedes all that political noise, and it’s a good thing. Seriously, who doesn’t prefer the soft hum of summer twilight to some gas bagger on a podium? Sponsored by Baklund R&D. 

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