Podcast 293

Wash Cycle. Updates for the new work week start with laundry in the Broadcast Bunker. You’ve probably been feeling pretty good lately, what with all the stories about how great Christmas Shopping was going and how cheap gas was like a tax cut, and how we’ve finally turned the corner on the economy, with the multitudes heading back to work, right? The toward the end of last week, someone punched the mute button on the celebration. Now, this won’t stop the President from taking credit for ‘booming’ economic growth in the United States in his State of The Union message, but new numbers temper the enthusiasm a little bit and may even explain why more than half of Americans aren’t so sure we’ve got the party started yet. As with almost every development related to President Obama and the economy, the compliant media continues to paper over mistakes, and grasp at green shoots in the economy. Unemployment is 5.6 percent! We’ve created over 250,000 jobs! What they don’t tell you is today’s 5.6 percent isn’t the same as when Bill Clinton was president, since there are 65 million some people who apparently are out of the work force permanently. Moreover wages, which have been rising slightly, are not rising fast enough, or high enough to sustain economic growth, say some analysts. At the end of last week, the compliant media was again surprised – stunned in fact – to see that retail sales actually contracted in December, a whopping .9 percent. Economists (astrologists) had predicted only a .1 percent drop. Remember when cheap gas was supposed to act like a tax cut? Gas stations got hit the hardest. Auto sales got hit. And, even though we ‘created’ two hundred fifty thousand plus jobs last month, there were 314,000 applications for unemployment, up 19,000 and the highest number in four months. Note to self; A tax cut is a permanent reduction in a tax rate, allowing people to plan for the long term future by investing, or purchasing big ticket items, or starting businesses. A reduction in a price is not a tax cut. Meanwhile the energy price and commodity price rout continues, and now banks in the oil patch, manufacturers like CAT, rail roads and energy states are taking the hit. Oh we’ll take the cheaper oil, but the media needs to stop crowing about how great a commodity price collapse is. It should be viewed as a danger sign, because the rest of the world economies apparently got the wrong flu shot. What’s wrong? No one is asking whether or not we should be stimulating supply, rather than demand. Are conservatives proposing dynamic, proven solutions? Finally, the IRS wants more money. They don’t have enough employees. Has anyone bothered to report how many employees the IRS actually has? You’d be surprised. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing. 

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Podcast 271

Gas Oil Collapse. Energy and Oil and Politics. We may be at the beginning of the end of an era in the energy markets, politics and economic policy but people are never going to figure it out with the terrible job the media is doing reporting on these topics. Gas is below two dollars in 13 states, crude trading at 55 dollars a barrel, with more drops expected. Meanwhile, OPEC refuses to cut production, even refuses to hold a meeting to discuss it. The drop in oil over the last few months of 40 percent so far, most of it in the last two months is beginning to have an effect. OPEC’s price war on Frackers in the US, Canada and Brazil, the international version of a gas war, is beginning to have economic and political effects. When the cheerleaders talk about oil ‘acting like a tax cut’, remember there is a lot more to this story. If energy production in the US is a big piece of the manufacturing boom, what happens when lower prices curtails exploration? Will lower oil and gas prices still act like a tax cut? What about disinflation, or outright deflation in commodity prices? What about dropping demand due to economic slow downs in China, Europe, and Latin America? Do you think the US is ‘decoupled’ from the rest of the world’s economies? On Wall Street, the story is completely different. There, investors are moving money from the market to long term Treasury Bonds, an indication of expected weakness? Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve will be hard pressed to raise interest rates (which its wants, and perhaps needs to do) in the face of declining commodity prices. This isn’t just an international problem. A Minnesota State Legislator wants to reduce farm property taxes, due to the decreased revenues farmers are seeing on their crops. As the sun sets on the Democrat Senate Majority, and rises on a huge Republican majority in the US Congress as well as state legislatures and governor’s mansions, we’re also about to enter a new era in politics, or perhaps close an old one. How will the last two years of the Obama administration differ from the previous 6? Despite the President’s progressive rhetoric, does the budget deal indicate will be a little different when it comes to horse trading with Congress? Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating and Depotstar. 

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Podcast 264

Jeb Bush? Really? What started as a midweek update, back in the studio after the road trip, turned into a discussion of whether the ‘conservative movement’ has completely lost its way, even whether it exists at all. As Congress seems to struggle with how to handle President Obama’s executive orders on immigration, in an effort to avoid a government shutdown which moderates feel is bad publicity for Republicans, the Speaker’s plan is apparently to pass a continuing resolution for the overall budget while offering a separate budget for Homeland Security (Which is where the funding for the President’s controversial executive order on Immigration is funded). This leaves room for the complete Republican 117th Congress to address these issues after January. This strategy isn’t sitting well with some Republicans who believe they were sent there to stop the President’s power grab. While political junkies should probably stop worrying about Congress and start concentrating on building organizations for 2016, there is a big fight brewing on both sides of the political spectrum. Progressive and Moderate Democrats on one side, and a mixed bag of Republican constituencies on the other. Libertarians, Moderates, Religious Conservatives all vying for control of the GOP … again. This leaves space for yet another Bush to ride in on the White Horse they keep down there on the ranch and be ‘the adult in the room’ and stop all those crazy ‘Paul-Bots’, and ‘Tea Baggers’; i.e.; The Conservative Movement. Or what’s left of it. The challenge in this podcast is, once again, to define what exactly a conservative is? While the Republicans won a huge midyear victory, that victory does not mean the ‘movement’ is healthy … or even alive. A conservative is a former Florida Governor who believes in Common Core and doesn’t want to repeal Obama Care? Republicans might have won a legislative majority in 2014, but that doesn’t mean they know what they’re doing. All it shows — and they certainly deserve credit for it — is that they were able to get their people out to vote, while the other side stayed home. But what is the GOP for? What do the conservatives want to do about economic policy, spending and debt, foreign policy? The so called grassroots are talking about 1776, the constitution and a constitutional convention (Editor’s Note: The dumbest idea ever.) This is a conservative ‘movement’? Next? Someone finally has taken the pundits who keep saying cheaper gas is like a huge tax cut. Except it’s not. In this podcast find out why. Plus, don’t forget there is an ominous demand side to the cheaper gas we’re currently enjoying; Slow downs in Europe, Japan, China and Latin America do not bode well for the global economy, and the US isn’t growing dynamically to pull everyone else’s fat out of the fire this time. Black Friday turned out to be a bust. So don’t expect that just because gas is 2.49 a gallon it means unicorns and rainbows, economically speaking that is. Sponsored by X Government Cars and by Depotstar. 

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