Podcast 338

Change. Interrupting The Rockford Files to do podcast 338. The sameness of news coverage lately provokes discussion on change. How it occurs, when it occurs and how do we notice when things are changing? Think back to different times, and how you noticed things were changing. What caught your attention? A TV Show, Fashion, a song, or something in the news? What resonates with you to indicate things are changing. Usually major change requires some kind of catalyst. The stock market crash of 1929 ushered in the Great Depression, the assassination of President Kennedy was the beginning of the tumultuous 1960’s and early 70’s, and of course in our time frame, September 11th brought huge changes in our society and the world. Is there a point where you look up and say, “Things are different now”? Are we on the cusp of major changes in the world and in the United States? What are the cues, the waypoints, the clues of a major change in era? When we watch our favorite old TV shows we can see how things have changed. Its nostalgic but also instructive to watch shows with good writing. like ‘The Rockford Files’, or ‘Friends’, or ‘Miami Vice’; shows that aired for many seasons, starting in one era, and ending in another. Certainly this podcast does not suggest that we can tell what’s going on by watching old TV shows on Netflix. What it suggests is things are changing again, and this time maybe significantly. What things that are present now will be the building blocks of the future, and what things will be swept away. As Moore’s law continues its exponential impact on technology and society, suddenly there is more coverage of robotics and artificial intelligence, suddenly IT systems that were up to date seem old and ‘kludgy’, and we’re seeing signs of the future everywhere; Uber outnumbers yellow cab in New York, autonomous check out machines, new business models, an iPhone that was brand new a second ago seems suddenly obsolete. Media is changing too; MSNBC is dying, broadcast television viewing is plummeting, Netflix is getting competitors including the networks, HBO and Apple, and the new cars don’t even come with AM radio anymore. As things change one thing is for sure. People attuned to politics should hold on loosely, because it may be true that in the near future  many things we consider constants will change. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul. 

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Podcast 294

Dry Cycle. The update turns into a discussion of the fallibility of media, even your favorite cable news channel. This weekend, Fox News had to correct itself and apologize profusely for reporting there are ‘no go’ zones in Europe, where non muslims fear to tread, and the police won’t enter. Everyone was talking about it all weekend after Fox anchors and guests apparently got it wrong. These are neighborhoods in England and suburbs in France that are about as forbidding as LA’s Compton, or Chicago’s South Side. While Europe has been more lenient allowing Sharia Law, it does not mean muslim ‘enclaves’ have sprouted, even though allowing a separate law for Muslims in a modern, western democracy is not a good idea. That said, the President and the Pope continue to support limits on free speech. President Obama even went so far as to say he doesn’t consider terrorism a existential threat, which it most certainly is, then said Europe has to do a better job ‘integrating’ its Muslims. Maybe he fell for the No Go story too. This provokes a whole conversation about how to wean yourself from cable news and talk radio, develop multiple sources of information, deal in facts, avoid the emotion spewing out of talk radio and fox news, and use your tools to find and develop deeper knowledge on key subjects. The need to fill the airwaves, pushes under financed and poorly managed outlets to spew out incorrect information, relying on ping ponging viewers back and forth between the latest outrage and the latest breaking news. The good news? That kind of media’s glory days are behind it, as it gives way to on demand audio (podcasts), You Tube, NetFlix and future on demand video services. A recent survey reports that most millennials don’t ever watch broadcast television, seldom watch cable news channels, and download virtually all their entertainment and information. In an on demand world, the daily outrage may not work as well, as people seek out information, rather than people screaming at each other. The latest example? NASA says 2014 was the hottest year on record? Do you know by how much? Do you know what the margin of error is in that estimate? The answer might surprise you. Finally, Arizona and other states are passing laws which require high school seniors to pass citizenship exams in order to graduate. Good idea? Sponsored by Baklund R&D. 

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Podcast 265

China Wins! Weekend updates start with the news that China has overtaken the US as the largest economy in the world. Except it’s not true. According to the IMF, using one measurement of economic magnitude, China has overtaken the US. Of course the US media jumps all over this story despite the fact that the measurement called PPP is controversial for many reasons. In fact China’s economy is considerably smaller and poorer than the US. However, it should be pointed out, when your neighbor is saying ‘things are better now’; if the US continues to have sub par growth (par in this case would be a normal dynamic growth of 4% or more for the same length of time as the recession), China will eventually overtake us. All the more reason to advocate growth policies focused on production, rather than trying to stimulate consumption. Protesters, variously reported as protesting the Ferguson Grand Jury decision and advocating for a higher minimum wage, blocked I35W just outside of the downtown Minneapolis. (Editor’s Note: The confusion in reporting got me talking about minimum wage, but the effect is the same. I don’t understand how making people angry because they sit in traffic for an hour makes them amenable to the cause, whatever that is.) The kinds of people who make more money are the people who develop time and productivity saving innovations, and figure out how to market them. Increasing wages by fiat won’t make anyone’s life better in the long run. Moreover, it’s possible in the short run, some fast food and service industries that employ human beings will automate most of these processes and actually improve service and the quality of their product. Low and middle skilled labor in the next twenty five years will face some grim employment challenges. Protesting this sea-change in the production and labor equation, is spitting into the wind. Black Friday sales are down, provoking all kinds of discussion about ‘what it means for the economy and retailers’. Probably nothing, either way. But, it does provoke a discussion about why some retailers are going out of business, and it isn’t because they’re not offering discounts. Its because they’re not retooling properly for the new consumers who don’t want to wait until the day after Thanksgiving for the best deals, and they want better service. Some stories from the consumer front prove this thesis. For example, a new study says people care more about the WIFI connection than they do the bed, when it comes to choosing a travel hotel. Did the North Koreans really hack Sony Pictures. Not so fast. Investigators now think it was a disgruntled employee. But the real story is how much these Hollywood types are making … but you won’t see any minimum wage protesters on the Sony studio complex. Meanwhile, more TV viewers are streaming their favorite shows, and its happening with radio too as people listen to podcasts and services like Pandora, over the internet. Finally, that all meat diet you’re on may actually be better for your heart than the gluten free bagel diet. New studies show its the carbs that kill your heart. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul, and by Depotstar. 

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