Podcast 271

Gas Oil Collapse. Energy and Oil and Politics. We may be at the beginning of the end of an era in the energy markets, politics and economic policy but people are never going to figure it out with the terrible job the media is doing reporting on these topics. Gas is below two dollars in 13 states, crude trading at 55 dollars a barrel, with more drops expected. Meanwhile, OPEC refuses to cut production, even refuses to hold a meeting to discuss it. The drop in oil over the last few months of 40 percent so far, most of it in the last two months is beginning to have an effect. OPEC’s price war on Frackers in the US, Canada and Brazil, the international version of a gas war, is beginning to have economic and political effects. When the cheerleaders talk about oil ‘acting like a tax cut’, remember there is a lot more to this story. If energy production in the US is a big piece of the manufacturing boom, what happens when lower prices curtails exploration? Will lower oil and gas prices still act like a tax cut? What about disinflation, or outright deflation in commodity prices? What about dropping demand due to economic slow downs in China, Europe, and Latin America? Do you think the US is ‘decoupled’ from the rest of the world’s economies? On Wall Street, the story is completely different. There, investors are moving money from the market to long term Treasury Bonds, an indication of expected weakness? Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve will be hard pressed to raise interest rates (which its wants, and perhaps needs to do) in the face of declining commodity prices. This isn’t just an international problem. A Minnesota State Legislator wants to reduce farm property taxes, due to the decreased revenues farmers are seeing on their crops. As the sun sets on the Democrat Senate Majority, and rises on a huge Republican majority in the US Congress as well as state legislatures and governor’s mansions, we’re also about to enter a new era in politics, or perhaps close an old one. How will the last two years of the Obama administration differ from the previous 6? Despite the President’s progressive rhetoric, does the budget deal indicate will be a little different when it comes to horse trading with Congress? Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating and Depotstar. 

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Podcast 232

Obama and Ebola. As another health worker is reported to have contracted the Ebola virus, the President cancels a fundraiser to hold an emergency meeting with his ‘Ebola Team’ to make sure ‘it doesn’t happen again’. The meeting raises yet more questions, even as it raises the stakes for an embattled President. As predicted weeks ago by The Bob Davis Podcasts, Ebola now dominates news coverage, in the fantasy 24/7 news cycle. And, in the Magic Kingdom of the News Media, whatever steps taken to combat problems like Ebola, the feeble economic recovery, or a threat like ISIS just have to work…unless they don’t. Still, questions not answered continue to multiply. Why did Amber Vinson – the third person with Ebola in the US and second health worker to contract the disease at the hospital in Dallas – get on a plane and fly to Cleveland, from Dallas, and back … with all the stops in between. That seems like a lot of ‘contact tracking’ for the ‘experts’ at the CDC to do. Are charges about containment procedures being ignored at the Dallas hospital true, and if so, does that mean we should be monitoring more than a little over a hundred people from there? What does ‘self monitoring’ mean? And, why was a person who was supposedly being monitored flying around the country? Moreover, experts keep saying we don’t have enough data to know if the Ebola Virus can be spread more easily than what ‘experts’ say, or whether it could mutate into a form more easily transmitted. Finally, if this is what happens when one terminal Ebola patient shows up at a hospital, what happens when 3 show up? What about 10? What about 100. How many ‘SWAT Teams’ of ‘pros from Dovwer’ does the CDC have? To add insult to injury, if you’re concerned about the response to Ebola infection in the US (such as refusing a travel ban for people coming from West Africa, which Columbia and the tiny Caribbean Island of Saint Lucia’s have done) you’re panicking? Then there are the markets, dropping because of concern about economic slow downs in Europe and China. Oh yeah, let’s not forget ISIS which is not cooperating with Obama’s strategy to ‘degrade and destroy’ them. If this really is the Democrats ‘October Surprise’ its not working well. As polls show more momentum with Republicans on the issues those surveyed care most about, it suggests voters that decide who to vote for at the last minute could pick Republican candidates. The only bright spot is cheaper gasoline, as Saudi Arabia pumps like crazy, hoping to force American oil companies to slow or stop production, which is reportedly not profitable below about 90 dollars a barrel. Just a word of caution; A drop in the price of commodities is really not a good sign when every major central bank in the world is pumping cash into the banking systems. Will these problems go away? Or cascade into catastrophe? Only time will tell. Sponsored by Baklund Research and Development. 

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Podcast 214

North Dakota. The final On-The-Road podcast takes us through Montana to North Dakota. When you travel, especially in a car, you get philosophical. Subscribers to the Bob Davis Podcasts suggested a trip to Williston, for a first hand look at what ‘Fracking’ has wrought. One does not have to go to Williston to see the effects of development and economic growth in North Dakota. Everything is new. Kicking off some musing about the different ways the American West Developed, how the West uses its resources for economic growth. The sheer geographic size and scope of Western States is truly impressive, not to mention innovation and opportunity from the coffee stands and whitewater outfitters in Moab, Utah to brand new service stations, franchises, apartment buildings, hotels and office buildings in North Dakota. While North Dakota leads the nation in economic growth and energy development, it is just one state. The whole trip through the so called ‘Mountain West’ definitely leaves a visual impression, but it also serves as a reminder of just how majestic the United States is, and how much potential there really is. From trains, to smaller cities all over the west, in states so large you wouldn’t even know there is growth and development, and innovation everywhere. One can’t help but wonder how much more potential for growth would exist if people enjoyed an easier path to following their dreams. The Minneapolis Tribune and New York Times don’t like North Dakota’s oil boom, but then again, the establishment ‘back east’ has never been comfortable with the diverse economic interests ‘Out West’ that have struggled with development, exploitation of natural resources, agriculture and ranching issues, for over one hundred years. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul. 

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