Podcast 245

Election Eve. The first of two podcast over the next 24 hours to get you up to speed on the spin, sandbagging and screeching in the final hours of the 2014 election cycle. Podcast 246 will take an in depth look at the polls and will be ready for Tuesday morning. Podcast 245 is in a little more relaxed setting, and calls attention to some of the things people are writing and saying the polls say, which have no basis. Meanwhile, the next two days are the most difficult for the punditry and the media as campaigns wind down, few new polls are released, and we wait for the votes to be counted. Some people are already sick of the election coverage, especially if you have been watching the news channels (mainly because the incessant political advertising is driving people over the edge), yet others are just starting to pay attention. Most of the polls at this late hour are all within their statistical margin of error, and therefore not conclusive about which candidates and parties have the edge or momentum. While there are one or two notable exceptions, the networks and pundits drive ahead with story lines and claims that the Republicans will take the Senate. While the GOP will gain Senate seats, whether they gain a majority is an open question. Stories this weekend about the Democrats predicting big wins for the Republicans, may actually be an effort to galvanize Democrat supporters to vote, especially when they come from The New York Times, and the Washington Post. In Minnesota, where the races are tightening to within less than ten points in the Gubernatorial Race (and more ominously a tie in the Northeastern part of the state, which is very unusual), and ten points in the Senate race, the Star Tribune runs a story about Senator Franken’s Net Neutrality cause, with little mention of opponent Mike McFadden, on a day in which the two candidates debated. The truth? This may turn out to be one of the most unusual, and therefore historic races in US Political history. The reason? Almost no one can predict what restive voters will actually end up doing. Election returns and final results may be delayed well into the night, and until January 6th at the latest, if run off elections are called for, or if recounts are demanded in close races. Another interesting development is the sudden appearance of pundits either blaming the President (from right and left) for the democrat problems, or making excuses for him. While the President has raised a lot of money for Democrat candidates, many campaign managers feel it was a mistake for some candidates not to distance themselves from the President, earlier and more loudly. And now the sudden predictions of how the White House will become interested in negotiation and compromise. While that is a possibility, President Obama may dig in his heels, and try to rally progressives for a future Elizabeth Warren presidential run. For all the talk about how the President is surrounded by bumblers, it seems like his obstinance, resistance to debate and diversity of opinion, postponing decisions or making outright mistakes can only be blamed on him. How President Obama deals with a Republican House and a newly Republican Senate (which is by no means guaranteed) will be the biggest political story of 2015. Sponsored by X Government Cars and Depotstar. 

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Podcast 237

Election 2014. Rundown of the top issues currently in election 2014, ending with analysis of polls in key Senate races. We’ll start with focus groups. Researchers use focus groups to sharpen their understanding of survey research, to help refine questions to be asked in surveys, and to gain insights on consumer behavior, perceptions and the differences between. The new ‘Soccer Mom’ is a thing called ‘The Walmart mom’; adult women in a certain income range, with children who shop at Walmart. If these women are the new ‘swing’ voter, America is profoundly under informed. For those trying to predict an outcome that is ‘red’ or ‘blue’ in the upcoming elections; the only thing you can be sure of is voters are restive. They’re worried about Ebola, their jobs, their kids, their living standard, ISIS and terrorists. They’re concerned about Obama’s performance as a leader, they really hate congress, and don’t trust the government as a whole. Overall, on both sides of the imaginary political fence, incumbents might actually suffer the worst fate on election night. That could be a harbinger of pick ups for both Republicans, and Democrats. President Obama didn’t help himself on Al Sharpton’s radio show the other day. Now the idea there is some back room deal which allows democrats to distance themselves from the President while he works secretly to get them re elected, because they support ‘his’ policies, through and through, is spreading through media like ebola in West Africa. Between the President’s loud mouth and the First Lady’s confusion about Bruce Braley (not bailey), and what office he is running for in Iowa (Senate not Governor), it’s democrats angry at the White House ‘Jay-Vee’ team, not just Republicans. Meanwhile, the New York Times is doing everything it can to help democrats in battleground states. The latest is an effort to portray Iowa as a burgeoning urbanized state. (Editor’s note: I have driven through Iowa many times in the last few years and I assure you, there are a great many corn and soy bean fields remaining). Add to the din, James Okeefe’s latest video which shows democrat operatives in Colorado cheering an actor who explains how to commit massive voter fraud using absentee ballots, and Teacher’s Unions spending millions in the last few days before November 4th (Election Day), and its starting to get interesting. Then comes the so called battleground states, where republicans, democrats and independents are running neck and neck, confounding the punditry’s attempts to make claims about pick ups and losses. Suddenly Republican strongholds are in play, and visa versa. Listen to this podcast and you will know the latest on polls in all of them, and what the data means. Remember though, late breaking voters tend to be terribly misinformed, and as predicated by Bob Davis weeks ago, in the end this all comes down to which teams are going to be more successful getting the vote out. The GOP hopes for the usual higher turn out in off years, but the DNC knows it has to turn out the Obama coalition (Minorities, women and young adults) just one more time, like they did in 2008 and 2012, and they are well equipped to do just that. Now it’s all up to you … the voter. Or not. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul. 

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Podcast 229

2014 Election Update. Political Red Meat. The 2014 Election will be a republican wave? Whoa! Hold on there, big shooter! It’s time to go through the toss up states one by one and take a look at what the polls say, how they are averaging and why predictions of a wave election for republicans may not just be off base, but way off base. Part of the problem is media company’s like NBC, which apparently is unable to discern the difference between a satirist and a newsman, between entertainment and information programming. No wonder people watching can’t tell the difference anymore. The other part of the problem is the habit of projecting polling data as actual votes. They are vastly different. Thus, someone is finally going to tell you why predicting republican – or democrat – victories with close races in places like Louisiana, Kansas, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, and yes even Iowa, is nothing more than setting a story line that makes republicans feel good and keeps them watching. They’ve even taken to suggesting Minnesota’s senate race could tighten up because businessman Mike McFadden is such a ‘good candidate’. Really? None of this means a Republican wave can’t or won’t happen, but predicting such a thing is really bad reporting. Another reason we are deeply ill served by our so called ‘news media’ these days, which has become a caricature of what it once was at best, and a gross cartoon at worst. The danger for Republicans is they will do what they always do, tell pollsters they are going to throw the bums out, that they’ll vote in a show of anger toward the bum-in-chief, and then since Fox News is telling them the GOP is on a roll stay home and get comfortable in the chair to watch the election results. God forbid anyone would actually go out and make sure a candidate wins, that’s for someone else. The danger for Democrats is that they will be so demoralized, they won’t vote (not betting on that, though). Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul, and by Depotstar. 

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