Podcast 489

New York Primary Results. The results of the New York Presidential Primary are in. Now sit back and watch the story lines change. Surprise! After a day of voter confusion and typical New York statements from election officials about investigations, the New York Primary Results are in. Donald Trump won roughly 60 percent of the Republican votes, and Hillary Clinton managed about 57 percent of the Democratic votes in a slightly closer race. The most interesting outcome of this presidential preference poll is which republican candidate came in second. While Trump celebrates a win large enough for him to control a lion’s share of the delegates from the Empire State, Ohio Governor John Kasich ran a good second, and Texas Senator Ted Cruz came in a distant third, which should be enough to change the media story lines from ‘Ted Cruz is posing a strong challenge to Trump’, to whether or not John Kasich could be the nominee for the republicans in a contested republican convention this summer. The next primaries favor Trump and especially Kasich. Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island will hold primaries on April 26th. While most analysts expect Trump to win most of the delegates, many will be keeping a close eye on Kasich. Is the republican establishment working for Trump opponents in states that favor them? Recent polls from Wisconsin suggest that might be true. More establishment figures as well as candidates seem to be pointing toward a contested convention. With the establishment concerned about the so called ‘down-ticket’; the US Senate and House, chances are Trump and Cruz — who don’t poll well against Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders in a head to head match ups — may not be able to get the nomination if they can’t get the required 1237 majority of delegates on the first ballot. This is the main thing to pay attention to in the next few weeks. Ignore the pundits and the exit poll nonsense and focus on the next spate of primaries. Finally, the New York Times reports voters ‘disillusioned’ by primary races that depend on delegate elections, not the popular vote. Are they being sidelined or were voters always sidelined in these state primaries and caucuses? Sponsored by Brush Studio and X Government Cars.

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Podcast 487

Confessions of a Delegate. As commentators, political junkies, your next door neighbor and just about everyone speculates about the number of delegates garnered by candidates in the 2016 primary race, I thought it was time to actually talk to one of the delegates to a past convention to get an idea of what it’s like. Thus, Confessions of a Delegate. Mark Johnson was a republican activist supporting Texas Congressman Ron Paul for president in 2012. Johnson was part of the storied Minnesota Delegation, one of five state delegations pledged to support Paul. We’ve all seen the shots on TV from the convention floor. What was it really like to be on the floor at the convention? What was it like to experience the power of the establishment first hand, a republican establishment bound and determined not to allow the Texas Representative a chance to speak to the convention or have his name entered into nomination from the floor. What did the establishment do? They changed the rules before the convention (the now famous rule 40b) and prevented a so called ‘minority report’ on the rules committee from being entered into consideration and voted on, making sure Minority Report author Morton Blackwell’s bus didn’t make it to the convention in time for the vote. The establishment also disqualified the Maine delegation and replaced them with Romney supporters. Why is this important. This fight is nothing compared to what could happen if none of the candidates reach Cleveland with enough delegates pledged to them to achieve a nomination on the first ballot, an outcome which appears more and more likely, an outcome all three remaining candidacies appear to be preparing for. Now ‘retired for the time being’ Johnson talks about his experience and has some advice for the delegates elected to their conventions in 2016. Sponsored by X Government Cars and Pride of Homes and Luke Team Real Estate. (Editor’s note; At one point I refer to what happens when delegates get to ‘Tampa’, since we were talking about Tampa and 2012. I meant to say Cleveland, where the GOP convention will be held in 2016.)

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Podcast 485

The Political Walking Dead. As many are watching the final installment of the current season of ‘The Walking Dead’ results of the Wisconsin primary roll in, making a convincing case for the next season of the Hit AMC Show which might be aptly entitled, “The Political Walking Dead”. Why? With a win for Texas Senator Ted Cruz in Wisconsin, the challenge for Donald J. Trump to get to the magic number of 1237 delegates will be quite difficult. That does not mean that it will be any easier for Cruz – who has a couple hundred less delegates right now than Trump – or Ohio Governor John Kasich, trailing behind front runner, and his close challenger. Meanwhile on the Democrat side, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders’ Wisconsin win might frighten Hillary Clinton (A.K.A Madame Mao) but unless Sanders can make inroads to the so called Super Delegates, he can count himself among The Political Walking Dead; Candidates who are campaigning but have little hope of winning their party’s nominations on a first ballot at their respective conventions. Establishment republicans have already stated their intent to split the delegate count, preventing Trump victories, by working for Kasich and Cruz in states that favor them. Is that what happened in Wisconsin? Don’t count on the pay-for-play media to report on that kind of substance. While there was little doubt about a Cruz victory in Wisconsin, one need only to look at the remaining primaries — which are outlined for you in this podcast — to determine whether they are winner-take-all or proportional states, and count it out. It will be very difficult for any of them to achieve the required plurality of delegates at the Republican Convention in Cleveland this summer. What happens? Very interesting question. Cruz and his supporters claim their campaign has already poached Trump delegates in North Dakota, some southern and midwestern states so their guy will arrive at the convention with the magic number of delegates. The Trump camp disagree.  Meanwhile, if you’re concerned your vote doesn’t count, you’re not alone. A recent poll shows GOP voters think the nominee should be the person who wins the most votes, regardless of the delegate count. By campaigning for delegates after primary elections, these campaigns and the establishment are showing voters they don’t care about their vote. In fact, this is a dirty game of pressuring delegates and getting to the magic number. Who do we blame? What the hell. Blame republicans. They’re the ones that wanted all these lackluster candidates. They’re the ones with no new ideas. They’re the ones that advertised a bad product and allowed a reality TV star to dominate this kind of a circus. And, republican voters who have no idea what they’re for ate it all up with a spoon. As we head for summer, the last few primaries and the mainline party conventions, one thing is for sure. Hijinks, Shenanigans and Surprises will be the order of the day in one of the strangest elections in US history. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul and X Government Cars.

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