Podcast 241

One Week To Go. Election 2014 Update. On Wednesday morning November 5th, 2014, we will know most of the outcomes for US House of Representatives, and Gubernatorial races. We may not know the full result of the vote for US Senate. Close elections in runoff states mean that we may not know which party will control the US Senate until late on January 6th. Which races are close, which can be called now? In this podcast we’ll go through the close races, the races that will determine whether Republicans take control of the Senate, or Democrats retain a majority. There is, however, one key point about the ongoing Ebola debacle that needs to be addressed. The President spoke recently, attempting to pooh pooh the idea of establishing quarantines for returning ‘health workers’. The idea is, putting ‘health workers’ who are trying to help stop Ebola in Africa, will cause them to think twice before ‘volunteering’. Problem is, President Obama lifted his language directly from a New England Journal of Medicine article, written by Doctors. What’s going on here? First, ‘Health Workers’, are in fact Doctors and Nurses, who want special treatment. While we celebrate their interest in helping in Africa, we also celebrate our own Military Personnel who serve, and are being quarantined (including their officers, all the way to General) upon their return to base in Italy. Why do Doctors and Nurses expect to be treated as special citizens, when one of their own recently returned from West Africa to New York, with Ebola, to take a ride in an Uber Car, go Bowling, and ride the subway? Moreover, doctors and the President say science says a person with Ebola who is asymptomatic is not contagious, but in fact science is inconclusive on this subject. As far as election 2014 is concerned, baseless speculative reporting continues. Suddenly West Virginia is ‘going republican’, why? Maybe it has something to with Obama saying he wanted to put ‘coal out of business’? Oh no, it couldn’t be that, it must be that Hillbillies are racists and hate women. (Editor’s note: This is why I hate the ‘media’). Bloomberg’s Jonathon Bernstein says the media’s problem is there aren’t very many good reporters in states with close races, and he might be right. We know very little about key US House races. Minority leader Nancy Pelosi is reportedly bracing for deep losses for her party. As to the polls, CNN says ‘voters are angry’ (really?). Another poll says Latinos are ‘surprisingly’ OK with a Republican led Senate. Conventional wisdom is the enemy of objective analysis. Hispanic’s political views are becoming increasingly difficult to predict as this is not a monolithic group the media can latch onto, but they try. They sure do try. The polls show tough, close races in Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia, Kansas, Alaska, New Hampshire, Kentucky, Louisiana, with some movement in Arkansas. Still, small sample sizes, and electronic interviewing make these polls highly questionable. Run offs in North Carolina, Georgia and Louisiana (where there are multiple candidates) if the winner does not achieve at least 50 percent of the vote, mean there could be US Senate races in 3 states, we will not know the outcome of until after the runoffs. No one can say what will happen…the polls are just too close. Republicans could have a phenomenal night, a good night, or be disappointed, yet still win seats in the House and Senate. Democrats could retain control of the Senate, but lose seats in the house, or suffer heavy losses. It comes down to getting the vote out on election day (even with early voting). Sponsored by XGovernmentcars

Podcast 237

Election 2014. Rundown of the top issues currently in election 2014, ending with analysis of polls in key Senate races. We’ll start with focus groups. Researchers use focus groups to sharpen their understanding of survey research, to help refine questions to be asked in surveys, and to gain insights on consumer behavior, perceptions and the differences between. The new ‘Soccer Mom’ is a thing called ‘The Walmart mom’; adult women in a certain income range, with children who shop at Walmart. If these women are the new ‘swing’ voter, America is profoundly under informed. For those trying to predict an outcome that is ‘red’ or ‘blue’ in the upcoming elections; the only thing you can be sure of is voters are restive. They’re worried about Ebola, their jobs, their kids, their living standard, ISIS and terrorists. They’re concerned about Obama’s performance as a leader, they really hate congress, and don’t trust the government as a whole. Overall, on both sides of the imaginary political fence, incumbents might actually suffer the worst fate on election night. That could be a harbinger of pick ups for both Republicans, and Democrats. President Obama didn’t help himself on Al Sharpton’s radio show the other day. Now the idea there is some back room deal which allows democrats to distance themselves from the President while he works secretly to get them re elected, because they support ‘his’ policies, through and through, is spreading through media like ebola in West Africa. Between the President’s loud mouth and the First Lady’s confusion about Bruce Braley (not bailey), and what office he is running for in Iowa (Senate not Governor), it’s democrats angry at the White House ‘Jay-Vee’ team, not just Republicans. Meanwhile, the New York Times is doing everything it can to help democrats in battleground states. The latest is an effort to portray Iowa as a burgeoning urbanized state. (Editor’s note: I have driven through Iowa many times in the last few years and I assure you, there are a great many corn and soy bean fields remaining). Add to the din, James Okeefe’s latest video which shows democrat operatives in Colorado cheering an actor who explains how to commit massive voter fraud using absentee ballots, and Teacher’s Unions spending millions in the last few days before November 4th (Election Day), and its starting to get interesting. Then comes the so called battleground states, where republicans, democrats and independents are running neck and neck, confounding the punditry’s attempts to make claims about pick ups and losses. Suddenly Republican strongholds are in play, and visa versa. Listen to this podcast and you will know the latest on polls in all of them, and what the data means. Remember though, late breaking voters tend to be terribly misinformed, and as predicated by Bob Davis weeks ago, in the end this all comes down to which teams are going to be more successful getting the vote out. The GOP hopes for the usual higher turn out in off years, but the DNC knows it has to turn out the Obama coalition (Minorities, women and young adults) just one more time, like they did in 2008 and 2012, and they are well equipped to do just that. Now it’s all up to you … the voter. Or not. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

Podcast 229

2014 Election Update. Political Red Meat. The 2014 Election will be a republican wave? Whoa! Hold on there, big shooter! It’s time to go through the toss up states one by one and take a look at what the polls say, how they are averaging and why predictions of a wave election for republicans may not just be off base, but way off base. Part of the problem is media company’s like NBC, which apparently is unable to discern the difference between a satirist and a newsman, between entertainment and information programming. No wonder people watching can’t tell the difference anymore. The other part of the problem is the habit of projecting polling data as actual votes. They are vastly different. Thus, someone is finally going to tell you why predicting republican – or democrat – victories with close races in places like Louisiana, Kansas, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, and yes even Iowa, is nothing more than setting a story line that makes republicans feel good and keeps them watching. They’ve even taken to suggesting Minnesota’s senate race could tighten up because businessman Mike McFadden is such a ‘good candidate’. Really? None of this means a Republican wave can’t or won’t happen, but predicting such a thing is really bad reporting. Another reason we are deeply ill served by our so called ‘news media’ these days, which has become a caricature of what it once was at best, and a gross cartoon at worst. The danger for Republicans is they will do what they always do, tell pollsters they are going to throw the bums out, that they’ll vote in a show of anger toward the bum-in-chief, and then since Fox News is telling them the GOP is on a roll stay home and get comfortable in the chair to watch the election results. God forbid anyone would actually go out and make sure a candidate wins, that’s for someone else. The danger for Democrats is that they will be so demoralized, they won’t vote (not betting on that, though). Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul, and by Depotstar