Podcast 518

Skyfall. Last week’s vote by Britain to exit the European Zone provoked some of the most hysterical media coverage of an international news story I’ve seen in a long time. To begin with, there was little detailed coverage before the vote. Things we would need to know after the vote, like whether it was binding, how long it would take to negotiate an exit, what trade agreements might be effected, the defense agreements Britain has with other nations, the economic condition of the EU, Britain’s economic contribution to the EU in general, the percentage of the UK’s GDP accounted for in European Trade and so on. Then there is the issue of the world media being ‘on board’ with the remain vote, or at the very least reporting the story line that ‘leave’ would not pass. Consequently, no one was more surprised by a leave vote victory than the perfumed princes sitting in their air conditioned studios. If Skyfall was the fictional last resort of the embattled James Bond in the movie of the same name, watching anchors and pundits tear their hair out, one would think England is heading to Skyfall as we speak! Perhaps the EU’s unelected ‘leaders’ should be the ones heading to Skyfall. ‘Markets Crash’, the media moaned. From a distance, one might be forgiven for believing ‘The End Of The World’ is indeed near. Better head to Skyfall as a last resort! All is lost. The Leave Victory has jostled the carefully constructed ‘citizen of the world’ senses of a younger generation that apparently does not know the world existed before the EU. Well, the truth is the markets will regain their composure. In fact the British Pound recovered to pre-vote levels the Friday after the vote. It’s a tough thing to hear, but the EU has had problems for some time now, specifically the EURO, as southern Europe’s spendthrift policies have led them to demand relief from Northern Europe. Add to that trouble with the ECB, unpopular regulation and a failure to do anything about the Syrian refugee problem, and one wonders whether the EU hadn’t better clean up its act. Maybe Merry Old England delivered a slap in the face to the velvet suited technocrats, so they would go about getting their proverbial act together. Yes, there are real concerns going forward; What trade deals have to be renegotiated? While defense pacts like NATO really aren’t subject to EU control, there are concerns about defense issues and what about the idea of a strong European Community to foster cooperation and peace, to serve as a counterweight to an expansionist Russia, as well as China. There’s a lot to be worked out, but it isn’t the end of the world. The fact is, we are entering a new time, a new day, with new ideas and concerns. People may not have the language to describe their discontent and even disgust with over controlling governments, the edicts of unelected technocrats who spite ‘the great unwashed’, at their peril. When the winds of change blow, electorates have a funny habit of unpredictably lowering the boom on the haughty and confident. A new day indeed. Sponsored by Karow Contracting and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul. 

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Podcast 516

Summer Starts The Year. Most of this year has been like living on an ice floe, or behind glass, or encased in cotton. Now that summer has started, it feels like things are speeding up. It feels like the year is just starting. If that assessment resonates with you, there are three stories to watch in the next few weeks that may bear fruit as major game changers. Or not. First, Britain votes on June 23rd on whether to exit the European Union. If you read the analysts it’s all gloom and doom. Such an exit will trigger an economic collapse, or worse, plunge Europe into a collection of disagreeable states that triggered two world wars in the 20th century. Yet, if you think about it, there are many states that aren’t in the EU, both in Europe and in the rest of the world and we all seem to get along just fine. The world isn’t going to stop trading with Britain whether it stays in the EU, or not. Second, Movements such as the British Exit movement are characterized by the worldwide media as “Populist” or “Nationalist”, or worse “Xenophobic”. Explanations are offered to suggest this is the effect worldwide of the Trump candidacy. What if that isn’t it at all? What if people are struggling to come to grips politically with overbearing and increasingly incompetent governments, and central banks who seem to be doing more harm than good. The west seems to have a disturbing faith in government as a solution to all that ails. What if governments, politicians, technocrats and elitist ‘leaders’ are the problem? Is it possible we have lost the language to be able to define the problem, since almost every story about the economy leaves one with the impression that there’s only one way to address economic stagnation in the US and the rest of the world and that is to stimulate demand. What if stimulating demand isn’t the issue at all. Since we’re all so steeped in one way of thinking regardless of what ‘side’ of the political divide we’re on, we seem to be struggling with the issue of how to describe the tyranny of government. Our political system doesn’t seem to have the capacity to address it, mainly because we don’t seem to have the language to name the problem. Thus, people get described as ‘populist’, or ‘xenophobic’, and non governmental solutions get described the same way. If we talked about government in terms of Monarchy, perhaps Americans would better understand the increasingly unlimited power of government over our lives, and the unlimited ability of government to fail. Maybe that’s what the British in favor of an exit are saying. Third, republican candidate for the nomination for president Donald Trump may suffer death by a thousand cuts, politically speaking in the next few weeks as more and more issues come to the forefront concerning his campaign effort. Vulnerable Republican Senators are so concerned about losing the Senate they managed to get Marco Rubio to announce he is running for Senate in Florida after all. Moreover, Romney supporters are getting appointed to powerful posts on the rules committee, a ‘conscience clause’ rule change is in the offing, former Bush Administration officials are endorsing Hillary Clinton and it was revealed this week Trump’s campaign only has 1.3 million dollars on hand for a national campaign, and isn’t fully staffed. Get ready, a major challenge to Trump is in the works, with all the usual suspects working behind the scenes. Did someone say Jeb Bush? Romney? Ryan? Rubio? Time will tell. Sponsored by Karow Contracting and Brush Studio in the West End, Saint Louis Park.

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Podcast 389

Black Swans. What is a Black Swan Event? By definition, its not necessarily predictable, but we try in this podcast. We’re at the end of an era in the United States. You could say the same about the west in general, and maybe the rest of the world. While things seem on a relatively predictable path in the present time frame one thing we can all be sure of; Something will happen. Things will change. Perhaps significantly. What then is the event that introduces the pivot point that changes politics, society and history? We can only speculate. A financial crisis in China that leads to chaos. Disruption in the Euro Zone triggered by Greece that upsets the balance of power and destabilizes the Balkans. A nuclear weapon in the hands of ISIS. An EMP attack that turns our our technological wonders into junk. Disease. Earthquakes. Comet strikes. Aliens landing. Pick your poison. Or, Black Swan Events that end up being really good. The discovery of a stable anti or reverse aging drug. A way to increase intelligence in human beings. Manageable Machine Intelligence. A breakthrough in agriculture or energy that provides a stable source of food and power. The development of anti-gravity capabilities to lift huge payloads into space, revolutionizing space travel. A really good powdered milk! (JK). The key with these events isn’t necessarily predicting the event itself; It’s being prepared for, and predicting the reaction of mere mortals to the event. It wasn’t the stock market crash of 1929 that caused the depression, it was the government’s lame brained reaction to it. It wasn’t the assassination of Arch Duke Ferdinand that caused World War I, it was the secret pacts and misunderstood capabilities, coupled with irreversible mobilizations that caused World War I. And so on. It’s fun to speculate on the future. Sponsored by X Government Cars. 

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