Podcast 405

China Syndrome. As the China Market Meltdown story goes mainstream, it’s pundit tug-o-war between ‘China Doom’ proponents and ‘Nothing To See Here Folks’ adherents. Fun for the media, not so fun if you’re trying to figure out where this might go … could go wrong. Hopefully this podcast will be of some help. We start from the proposition that no one really knows what’s going on in China. It’s possible even the highest people in the Chinese Communist Government don’t really know what’s going on in China. Despite what is being said, there will be winners and losers if China actually does melt down, and surprises along the way. Does an economic collapse in China mean an end to the People’s Republic of China? What might that look like if it does happen? Or, will this problem simply be one of those momentary pauses, fodder for a couple of days relief from political nonsense in the US, before we get back to arguing about Donald Trump’s latest missive, Jeb Bush’s black hand, or Hillary Clinton’s email. It certainly feels like we’re nearing one of those strange historic pivot points, but whether the market meltdown in China, and the angst in markets across the world from Europe and Asia to the United States are in fact, that black swan pivot point. Could be. Hard to tell. Pivot points and Black Swan events don’t fit perfectly into decades, and are hard to predict. Its fun to hear people saying, “I’ve been predicting this for years” after something happens that looks like it could be a black swan event. In fact, historic pivot points have to be something more than just a Black Swan, but something that happens, that afterward people can clearly point to that event as the beginning of ‘when things changed’. One thing is for sure; Hold onto your hats (if you wear one), there is a strong feeling out there that what passes for current events today, may be about to change … for good. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul. 

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Podcast 399 – Sturgis Part 2

Sturgis Part 2. If you listen to this podcast with headphones, you’ll be right in the middle of the biggest motorcycle rally in the world. Heading into Sturgis, South Dakota, on a warm August morning we are surrounded by every kind of motorcycle you can imagine. The highways are literally chock full of bikes, coming and going to the 75th Anniversary of the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally. Despite its reputation as a rough event, Sturgis can sometimes feel like any other state fair, or big city event in late summer. What makes it unique are motorcycle enthusiasts who come from all over the United States and the world to convene. Sturgis is a town of 6600 people, and once a year the population swells to hundreds of thousands. This year, there were a million bikers. Some rode their motorcycles out, others trucked their bikes out and rented, or drove RV’s, still others camped in tents or trailers. Who comes and why? What are some of the drawbacks to the size of the event this year? For some, the the roots of what this rally means to them goes very deep. For others, motorcycling is part of family life. Others have just come for a good time and to hang with their best friends. From the big motorcycle manufacturers like Harley, Indian, Victory, and the after market companies like Ciro as well as people selling t-shirts, art, tattoos, leather goods, as well as the fun stuff like Body Painting, beer, and women who dance, this is a singular event. If you spent the week in Sturgis, you had no idea there was a big debate between Republican candidates for their party’s presidential nomination, and you didn’t care. From Main Street to the concerts and after hours partying, to the bikes, to the companies who come here to serve and sell to this singular cultural tribe of motorcycle enthusiasts, it is the people who make this very American, very real event what it is. Despite the inherent danger in motorcycling and its outlaw image, they are great people. And…Sturgis is really fun. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating Of Saint Paul. 

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Podcast 397

Levy Trump and Cecil. No, it’s not a law firm. No it’s not a children’s book. How today’s news cycle obsessions can become tomorrow’s forgotten story. What is worth your time? From MH-370 to Ebola today’s lead story is tomorrow’s forgotten junk, to be thrown out with the pizza box from last week, and the recycling. Today’s obsessions include a lion who has attained personhood by virtue of a name and a graphic demise at the hands of a opportunistic hunter, who happens to be a dentist from the suburbs of Minneapolis-Saint Paul, and a political candidate who is the leading republican, according to the polls. You’re not allowed to criticize Trump, or you’ll be blocked or shouted down. Fortunately for those who support the New York real estate and casino developer, former TV reality show host and purveyor of Miss America and Miss Universe beauty pageants, there is no criticism of the candidate himself. Oddly enough, people who claim the polls are rigged, also claim the polls show Trump to be the best chance for Republicans to win the 2016 presidential race. Yes, people are making wild claims about Trump’s potential for success. If republicans and the country wants him, fine. But let’s take a look at polling, political polling and the foibles of making predictions about a presidential race which is yet to gel. Not only are there fifty state primary elections or caucuses to get through, there are actually fifty state elections that make up the Presidential election itself. What about Trump as a third party candidate? Minnesota’s Jessie Ventura is offered up as an example. How does one state’s gubernatorial race in the 90’s predict a win for ‘The Donald’ in a three way presidential race? Does it? What about Ross Perot’s experience in the 1990’s. The media spurs uniformed speculation driven by polls that cannot and do not predict Trump’s, or anyone else’s performance in an election more than a year from now. It’s time for a frank discussion about political polling and its limitations, aside from allowing Cable TV news the opportunity to show graphics and charts and make baseless announcements about front-runners and ‘winners’. As far as Republicans are concerned, no matter who is nominated it’s going to be very tough to build a winning election organization with people who are frustrated, angry and scared of the future, and who have not demonstrated an ability to organize, work with each other, or get out the vote in the recent past. Republicans seem to be looking for a personality to lead them out of the wilderness, rather than take it upon themselves to start solving problems and present a viable agenda. Not a good omen for the 2016 cycle. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul. 

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