Podcast 397

Levy Trump and Cecil. No, it’s not a law firm. No it’s not a children’s book. How today’s news cycle obsessions can become tomorrow’s forgotten story. What is worth your time? From MH-370 to Ebola today’s lead story is tomorrow’s forgotten junk, to be thrown out with the pizza box from last week, and the recycling. Today’s obsessions include a lion who has attained personhood by virtue of a name and a graphic demise at the hands of a opportunistic hunter, who happens to be a dentist from the suburbs of Minneapolis-Saint Paul, and a political candidate who is the leading republican, according to the polls. You’re not allowed to criticize Trump, or you’ll be blocked or shouted down. Fortunately for those who support the New York real estate and casino developer, former TV reality show host and purveyor of Miss America and Miss Universe beauty pageants, there is no criticism of the candidate himself. Oddly enough, people who claim the polls are rigged, also claim the polls show Trump to be the best chance for Republicans to win the 2016 presidential race. Yes, people are making wild claims about Trump’s potential for success. If republicans and the country wants him, fine. But let’s take a look at polling, political polling and the foibles of making predictions about a presidential race which is yet to gel. Not only are there fifty state primary elections or caucuses to get through, there are actually fifty state elections that make up the Presidential election itself. What about Trump as a third party candidate? Minnesota’s Jessie Ventura is offered up as an example. How does one state’s gubernatorial race in the 90’s predict a win for ‘The Donald’ in a three way presidential race? Does it? What about Ross Perot’s experience in the 1990’s. The media spurs uniformed speculation driven by polls that cannot and do not predict Trump’s, or anyone else’s performance in an election more than a year from now. It’s time for a frank discussion about political polling and its limitations, aside from allowing Cable TV news the opportunity to show graphics and charts and make baseless announcements about front-runners and ‘winners’. As far as Republicans are concerned, no matter who is nominated it’s going to be very tough to build a winning election organization with people who are frustrated, angry and scared of the future, and who have not demonstrated an ability to organize, work with each other, or get out the vote in the recent past. Republicans seem to be looking for a personality to lead them out of the wilderness, rather than take it upon themselves to start solving problems and present a viable agenda. Not a good omen for the 2016 cycle. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

Podcast 250

Election Aftermath. How did the mainstream media do in covering election 2014? What are the primary issues for voters. What happens now? It was announced recently that the Weather Channel Morning Show beat Cable News Networks CNN and MSNBC, hands down, during an election year. Fox News regularly ‘crushes’ rival CNN, and the lesser MSNBC. Broadcast networks covered the midyear elections in 2014, in an effort to compete with cable news services. Based on the reviews from viewers and ‘observers’ of the business and coverage on election night, none of them did a very good job. There was more coverage than ever, but the networks now place political operatives and ‘ideologues’ next to journalists, blurring the lines between opinion and fact. Add to this the increasing need for news networks to employ whatever means necessary to ‘predict’ the outcome of political races. Statistics and polls are never accurate; The only question is whether sample sizes and calculations are reliable. Ideologues may try, but they cannot ‘predict’ the future with a percentage, like a weatherman predicting the chance of rain at 12 noon. The media now blames the polls. One political science professor wants an ‘investigation’ of the ‘the polls’. The polls showed tight races, and while there were a few surprises, results were generally within the margin of error, which for some polls was a perfectly respectable plus or minus 4 points. You could certainly predict the Republican Party would have an historic election, but you couldn’t make that prediction based on polling data. Now, we’re told the polls were biased in favor of Republicans. In 2012, it was the other way around. The problem isn’t the polls, it’s the media’s incessant and unreasonable need to predict, cajole, call races and set the tone. People are getting sick of it, especially when social media, and the Internet provide real time election results without commentary. Who needs CNN, MSNBC and Fox News, and talk radio — all of which will take half an hour to tell you what you can determine in 5 minutes looking at a website that runs all the results as the polls close? What happened in 2014? What emerges from exit polls is a blurry black and white; You can sense shades but not color. You can see form, but you can’t make out anything specific. People are concerned about the Economy, the roll out of ACA and leadership questions concerning the handling of ISIS and Syria, and lastly, Ebola. Is it partisan to suggest the Democratic agenda and campaign tactics focused on issues at the bottom of the list for most voters? Minnesotans wonder why the Minnesota GOP and virtually all the statewide candidates lost a once in a lifetime opportunity to turn out the votes and unseat a democrat governor, and Senator Al Franken, while neighboring Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker seemed to be able to turn out his supporters to win. Is the President still relevant? Will the Republicans come up with an agenda that shows what they’re for, rather than what they’re against? All this in Podcast 250, while shoveling snow! (Editors Note: And maybe a train too!) Sponsored by Baklund R&D

Podcast 247

Republicans Win! Election 2014 coverage. The final installment from Election Control deep inside the Broadcast Bunker. A minute by minute account of the election results on November 4th 2014. Starting out the podcast skeptical of big Republican wins and finally witnessing an historic ‘wave’ election. The GOP won 8-9 seats in the US Senate taking control of the upper house, more than 12 seats in the House, and 31 gubernatorial contests; The Governor’s races alone are headlines. Wisconsin’s Governor Walker won a tough race leading a number of significant Republican holds, with Governor’s mansion pick ups in 3 traditionally Democrat states; Illinois, Maryland and Massachusetts. In Minnesota the news isn’t so good. While the Republicans won back control of the State House of Representatives, they lost big statewide races including Governor and the US Senate. Stewart Mills, the Republican favored to win in the 8th District lost his bid to unseat Congressman Nolan. (Editor’s Note: The big issue for me was whether predictions of Republicans winning 6 or more seats in the US Senate would come true. I did not feel the polls warranted that prediction, as close races in Kansas, North Carolina and Colorado could have gone either way, but in fact, the polls were pretty close this time. I said a Republican wave was certainly possible. I would rather be surprised, than be disappointed, so I was a little surprised, and you can hear it happen as the podcast progresses through the evening. All predictions, correct and incorrect aside, this is why we have elections; so we can see what happens.) With historic wins by the Republicans in the midyear, the question now is whether President Obama will seek to conciliate and compromise with the new congress, with a much stronger Republican majority than the 113th Congress. What tack will the Republican Senate take with the President on Immigration, Obamacare, Judges, Foreign Policy as well as House investigations on a variety of subjects? Will a Republican Senate seek compromise with the President. If it does, will this endanger a Republican victory in 2016? How will democrats across the country react to this huge victory by Republicans? Is the victory based on low turnout by Democrats, or high turnout by Republicans? Were these votes a repudiation of President Obama, or based on local issues? To be fair, Republican wins are so broad based — Governor’s, House and Senate — its hard not to see it as a statement of disapproval of the President’s policies and leadership by voters. Will President Obama dig in his heels and fight a move to the center? Only time will tell. Sponsored by Baklund R&D