Podcast 245

Election Eve. The first of two podcast over the next 24 hours to get you up to speed on the spin, sandbagging and screeching in the final hours of the 2014 election cycle. Podcast 246 will take an in depth look at the polls and will be ready for Tuesday morning. Podcast 245 is in a little more relaxed setting, and calls attention to some of the things people are writing and saying the polls say, which have no basis. Meanwhile, the next two days are the most difficult for the punditry and the media as campaigns wind down, few new polls are released, and we wait for the votes to be counted. Some people are already sick of the election coverage, especially if you have been watching the news channels (mainly because the incessant political advertising is driving people over the edge), yet others are just starting to pay attention. Most of the polls at this late hour are all within their statistical margin of error, and therefore not conclusive about which candidates and parties have the edge or momentum. While there are one or two notable exceptions, the networks and pundits drive ahead with story lines and claims that the Republicans will take the Senate. While the GOP will gain Senate seats, whether they gain a majority is an open question. Stories this weekend about the Democrats predicting big wins for the Republicans, may actually be an effort to galvanize Democrat supporters to vote, especially when they come from The New York Times, and the Washington Post. In Minnesota, where the races are tightening to within less than ten points in the Gubernatorial Race (and more ominously a tie in the Northeastern part of the state, which is very unusual), and ten points in the Senate race, the Star Tribune runs a story about Senator Franken’s Net Neutrality cause, with little mention of opponent Mike McFadden, on a day in which the two candidates debated. The truth? This may turn out to be one of the most unusual, and therefore historic races in US Political history. The reason? Almost no one can predict what restive voters will actually end up doing. Election returns and final results may be delayed well into the night, and until January 6th at the latest, if run off elections are called for, or if recounts are demanded in close races. Another interesting development is the sudden appearance of pundits either blaming the President (from right and left) for the democrat problems, or making excuses for him. While the President has raised a lot of money for Democrat candidates, many campaign managers feel it was a mistake for some candidates not to distance themselves from the President, earlier and more loudly. And now the sudden predictions of how the White House will become interested in negotiation and compromise. While that is a possibility, President Obama may dig in his heels, and try to rally progressives for a future Elizabeth Warren presidential run. For all the talk about how the President is surrounded by bumblers, it seems like his obstinance, resistance to debate and diversity of opinion, postponing decisions or making outright mistakes can only be blamed on him. How President Obama deals with a Republican House and a newly Republican Senate (which is by no means guaranteed) will be the biggest political story of 2015. Sponsored by X Government Cars and Depotstar. 

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Podcast 237

Election 2014. Rundown of the top issues currently in election 2014, ending with analysis of polls in key Senate races. We’ll start with focus groups. Researchers use focus groups to sharpen their understanding of survey research, to help refine questions to be asked in surveys, and to gain insights on consumer behavior, perceptions and the differences between. The new ‘Soccer Mom’ is a thing called ‘The Walmart mom’; adult women in a certain income range, with children who shop at Walmart. If these women are the new ‘swing’ voter, America is profoundly under informed. For those trying to predict an outcome that is ‘red’ or ‘blue’ in the upcoming elections; the only thing you can be sure of is voters are restive. They’re worried about Ebola, their jobs, their kids, their living standard, ISIS and terrorists. They’re concerned about Obama’s performance as a leader, they really hate congress, and don’t trust the government as a whole. Overall, on both sides of the imaginary political fence, incumbents might actually suffer the worst fate on election night. That could be a harbinger of pick ups for both Republicans, and Democrats. President Obama didn’t help himself on Al Sharpton’s radio show the other day. Now the idea there is some back room deal which allows democrats to distance themselves from the President while he works secretly to get them re elected, because they support ‘his’ policies, through and through, is spreading through media like ebola in West Africa. Between the President’s loud mouth and the First Lady’s confusion about Bruce Braley (not bailey), and what office he is running for in Iowa (Senate not Governor), it’s democrats angry at the White House ‘Jay-Vee’ team, not just Republicans. Meanwhile, the New York Times is doing everything it can to help democrats in battleground states. The latest is an effort to portray Iowa as a burgeoning urbanized state. (Editor’s note: I have driven through Iowa many times in the last few years and I assure you, there are a great many corn and soy bean fields remaining). Add to the din, James Okeefe’s latest video which shows democrat operatives in Colorado cheering an actor who explains how to commit massive voter fraud using absentee ballots, and Teacher’s Unions spending millions in the last few days before November 4th (Election Day), and its starting to get interesting. Then comes the so called battleground states, where republicans, democrats and independents are running neck and neck, confounding the punditry’s attempts to make claims about pick ups and losses. Suddenly Republican strongholds are in play, and visa versa. Listen to this podcast and you will know the latest on polls in all of them, and what the data means. Remember though, late breaking voters tend to be terribly misinformed, and as predicated by Bob Davis weeks ago, in the end this all comes down to which teams are going to be more successful getting the vote out. The GOP hopes for the usual higher turn out in off years, but the DNC knows it has to turn out the Obama coalition (Minorities, women and young adults) just one more time, like they did in 2008 and 2012, and they are well equipped to do just that. Now it’s all up to you … the voter. Or not. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul. 

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Podcast 235

Walk and Talk. Review of last week’s Ebola and political news, on an evening neighborhood walk, during a perfect fall night in the Upper Midwest. What’s the first thing you thought about when you woke up today? How about the difference in being born during this time, or perhaps 1418? (Editor’s Note: Yes, this is the first thing I thought about when I woke up the day I did this podcast. Who knows where that came from!). The 1400’s? Probably not a great era to be born in no matter what your station in life; Peasant, or Royal. Life expectancy? Between 20 and 35 years. Probably the best place to live? A united China, at the dawn of the Ming Dynasty, in that era. 1400’s was also the peak of the North American Indians. While we can be concerned about the medieval things that happen in our time; Beheadings, the spread of Ebola and the fear associated with both, all other measurements of life these days compared to say, 1418 are much more desirable. Speaking of Ebola. At the suggestion of Republican Senator John McCain, President Obama has appointed an Ebola Czar. Now everyone is upset that the Ebola Czar isn’t a General. Really? How can moderate Republicans like McCain go around talking about ‘smaller government’ when their best suggestion on how to handle Ebola is more government? How did that work out with The Department of Homeland Security after 9/11. The President oversees the Defense Department, NIH, the CDC and has a Surgeon General. What about Obama being the Ebola Czar since he’s responsible. Minnesota’s Republican Senate Candidate Mike McFadden finally hits a home run by advocating a travel ban, while Senator Al Franken wants to think about it some more. Meanwhile, the President tells America not to ‘panic’. Who’s in charge? According to the New York Times, President Obama is privately ‘livid’ that apparently no one is. Message to the President: “Pssst…Sir…uh…You’re in charge!”. Additional thoughts on the President’s no drama process. Maybe he just doesn’t want to do what anyone else wants to do, and uses ‘process’ as an excuse. Philosophically, he doesn’t believe the US is exceptional, blames European Colonialism for the problems of the world, and hews pretty much to the progressive belief in expanding government … particularly the Federal Government, and actually the executive branch of the federal government. Houston, we have a problem. We have a bad president, and if we can make it to January 20th 2017, we’ll have a new one. Hopefully someone who has had executive experience as Governor and not another former Senator, and please no more community organizers! Finally, the political ‘moneyballers’ continue to predict a Republican Wave, for the election on November 4th, 2014 and then take back the prediction. What’s the difference between political scientists, television personalities and writers who know how to use excel? Political scientists concentrate on real voting data, historically, and use poll data sparingly. We won’t know what will happen in this election, until at least November 4th, 2014 — late into the evening. Sponsored by XGovernmentcars! 

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