Podcast 495

The Light At The End Of The Tunnel? The Light At The End Of The Tunnel? It’s probably a train, right? First Ted Cruz quits the race, then the next day John Kasich quits. So, it is now fair to say that Donald J. Trump has a clear path to be nominated as the Republican Presidential Candidate at the Republican convention this summer. Yes, suddenly the republican establishment which so hated ‘The Donald’ it allowed #nevertrump to continue and in some cases encouraged it, has suddenly embraced the hated Trump even switching over to #neverhillary. So much for the so called ‘principled conservative’ at the top of the GOP. Now what? There’s a lot of ground to cover between now and the last primaries in June, and the conventions. Since there have already been a number of surprises in 2016, it’s fair to say just about anything could happen at either the republican or democrat convention. In treating the media story-lines with healthy skepticism, one wonders what happens to the Red State Blogs and Glenn Beck’s of the world? What happens to all the #nevertrump and Cruz supporting talk show hosts? Do they suddenly start working for Hillary Clinton? What about the outside possibility Bernie Sanders wins California and democrat super delegates start abandoning the USS Hillary? If Trump is the nominee – and to be fair it looks like he is going to be unless something happens between now and Cleveland – can he win the presidency? Already we’re seeing the same kind of ‘predict the future’ journalism now, we saw at the beginning of the Trump candidacy. Trump can not win, he starts in the hole and will never beat Clinton or Sanders. He’s a bully. He’s a xenophobe. He’s an authoritarian. If you’re a woman you’ll vote for Hillary. There are protests against Trump in the streets which may end up helping his candidacy, actually. Can Trump win? Of course he can. He went against the odds and crushed a whole field of republicans, although media compliments aside, the republican field this year was a disaster and the debates exposed them all as completely unprepared for the spotlight, except for the one guy who knows how to play the TV Reality Show Game. So yeah, Trump can win. The only problem with a Trump presidency is, republicans will probably regret it. Conservatives for Trump? Don’t make me laugh. Trade protection, Keynesian economics and nativism are hardly ‘conservative’ ideas. There are going to be a lot of long faces for republicans when they learn what a Trump presidency might actually mean for them, unless you want to work at a bucket factory or coal mine, where millennials with graduate degrees want to work, right? On the other hand, why not? It’s gonna be great! For too long republicans have masqueraded as conservatives, railing against abortion and same-sex marriage while they voted to increase budgets year after year for things like ‘education’ and stadiums for billionaire sports owners. Who deserves Trump? Republicans deserve Trump. The Light At End Of The Tunnel? It’s a Trump. No wait! It’s a train. Sponsored by X Government Cars and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.

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Podcast 491

Raising The Stakes. Screenwriters have a tool they employ to make movies thrilling. It’s called Raising The Stakes. This is where the hero seems to be winning. The detective is close to solving the case, but suddenly he’ll find his office has been broken into and all the evidence stolen. Or, the guy is about the get the girl, but he sees her with another guy. Raising The Stakes is how viewers are kept engaged up to the last moment when the plot comes to a climax. This is exactly how political junkies should view the latest results from Tuesday Night April 26th’s presidential primary preference polls. Donald Trump’s sweep of Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut and Rhode Island, the Hillary Clinton’s commanding victories in four of those states over Bernie Sanders raise the stakes. They haven’t won their respective party’s nominations for president yet, but they’re about to. Or are they? Get ready because the mainstream media is about the raise the stakes on you again with the next group of primaries all the way up to the final primaries in June. In this podcast, along with results from all the states for both republicans and democrats, a restatement of my bias in this election cycle; I really can’t stand any of the candidates on either side of the political spectrum, and I am not campaigning for any of them overtly or covertly. I am also not part of the so called ‘objective’ #nevertrump crowd. In fact, I wouldn’t cross the street to meet with any of them. Watch the delegate selection process very closely because the final delegate count is going to be different – maybe very different – from what is advertised on all the 24 hour cable news shows. Watch the Senate races where incumbent republicans are vulnerable (I’ll provide a list in this podcast), because for republicans this is going to have a lot more to do with who the nominee will ultimately be than delegates. If the RNC sees the possibility of losing the senate, there may be some plays called in from the sidelines. Hint; A Trump or Cruz candidacy do nothing for vulnerable republican senators, one of whom happens to be Florida’s Marco Rubio. Remember him? Watch the story lines for the next couple of weeks, because suddenly it’s all about how Trump is inevitable. Again, Raising The Stakes. Chances are this race will go down to the conventions, and there’s still a very good possibility it will be a contested convention on the republican side. On the democrat side, all is not well either. Hillary Clinton may have the lion’s share of delegates and super delegates, but many progressives view Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama as sell-outs. There is tepid support for Mrs. Clinton, which might cause her some problems at her convention and in a subsequent general election if she is the nominee. Stay tuned. It’s just getting interesting. Sponsored by X Government Cars and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.

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Podcast 489

New York Primary Results. The results of the New York Presidential Primary are in. Now sit back and watch the story lines change. Surprise! After a day of voter confusion and typical New York statements from election officials about investigations, the New York Primary Results are in. Donald Trump won roughly 60 percent of the Republican votes, and Hillary Clinton managed about 57 percent of the Democratic votes in a slightly closer race. The most interesting outcome of this presidential preference poll is which republican candidate came in second. While Trump celebrates a win large enough for him to control a lion’s share of the delegates from the Empire State, Ohio Governor John Kasich ran a good second, and Texas Senator Ted Cruz came in a distant third, which should be enough to change the media story lines from ‘Ted Cruz is posing a strong challenge to Trump’, to whether or not John Kasich could be the nominee for the republicans in a contested republican convention this summer. The next primaries favor Trump and especially Kasich. Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island will hold primaries on April 26th. While most analysts expect Trump to win most of the delegates, many will be keeping a close eye on Kasich. Is the republican establishment working for Trump opponents in states that favor them? Recent polls from Wisconsin suggest that might be true. More establishment figures as well as candidates seem to be pointing toward a contested convention. With the establishment concerned about the so called ‘down-ticket’; the US Senate and House, chances are Trump and Cruz — who don’t poll well against Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders in a head to head match ups — may not be able to get the nomination if they can’t get the required 1237 majority of delegates on the first ballot. This is the main thing to pay attention to in the next few weeks. Ignore the pundits and the exit poll nonsense and focus on the next spate of primaries. Finally, the New York Times reports voters ‘disillusioned’ by primary races that depend on delegate elections, not the popular vote. Are they being sidelined or were voters always sidelined in these state primaries and caucuses? Sponsored by Brush Studio and X Government Cars.

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