Podcast 247

Republicans Win! Election 2014 coverage. The final installment from Election Control deep inside the Broadcast Bunker. A minute by minute account of the election results on November 4th 2014. Starting out the podcast skeptical of big Republican wins and finally witnessing an historic ‘wave’ election. The GOP won 8-9 seats in the US Senate taking control of the upper house, more than 12 seats in the House, and 31 gubernatorial contests; The Governor’s races alone are headlines. Wisconsin’s Governor Walker won a tough race leading a number of significant Republican holds, with Governor’s mansion pick ups in 3 traditionally Democrat states; Illinois, Maryland and Massachusetts. In Minnesota the news isn’t so good. While the Republicans won back control of the State House of Representatives, they lost big statewide races including Governor and the US Senate. Stewart Mills, the Republican favored to win in the 8th District lost his bid to unseat Congressman Nolan. (Editor’s Note: The big issue for me was whether predictions of Republicans winning 6 or more seats in the US Senate would come true. I did not feel the polls warranted that prediction, as close races in Kansas, North Carolina and Colorado could have gone either way, but in fact, the polls were pretty close this time. I said a Republican wave was certainly possible. I would rather be surprised, than be disappointed, so I was a little surprised, and you can hear it happen as the podcast progresses through the evening. All predictions, correct and incorrect aside, this is why we have elections; so we can see what happens.) With historic wins by the Republicans in the midyear, the question now is whether President Obama will seek to conciliate and compromise with the new congress, with a much stronger Republican majority than the 113th Congress. What tack will the Republican Senate take with the President on Immigration, Obamacare, Judges, Foreign Policy as well as House investigations on a variety of subjects? Will a Republican Senate seek compromise with the President. If it does, will this endanger a Republican victory in 2016? How will democrats across the country react to this huge victory by Republicans? Is the victory based on low turnout by Democrats, or high turnout by Republicans? Were these votes a repudiation of President Obama, or based on local issues? To be fair, Republican wins are so broad based — Governor’s, House and Senate — its hard not to see it as a statement of disapproval of the President’s policies and leadership by voters. Will President Obama dig in his heels and fight a move to the center? Only time will tell. Sponsored by Baklund R&D. 

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Podcast 244

Halloween 2. The second of 2 Halloween podcasts. This one is a final, relaxed analysis of the political landscape before we head into Election Day next week. Now the election ‘moneyballers’; so called analysts who have been predicting a ‘republican wave’, or not predicting a ‘republican wave’ have begun to hedge their bets as the polls and races tighten. This is a continuing disservice to Americans, because we are being set up to believe the polls show a specific outcome. The 2014 election cycle is 435 local congressional districts, one third of the Senate in statewide races, scores of state legislature races (for example the Minnesota House, but not the Senate.) and races for the Governor’s mansion. The idea that any poll or any number of polls can be predictive of this disparate election terrain is and always has been ridiculous. Did you know, for example, that Colorado’s entire election this year is being conducted with mail in ballots, almost 2 million of which have not yet been received. Meanwhile opinion polls are too close to call across the country, and races that were republican ‘locks’ have flipped, and races that were democrat locks have flipped. And here come the sandbaggers. People who are still sour grapes because they predicted Romney would win in 2012, and have never lived it down. (Editor’s Note: I said all along Romney would lose, and the polls never showed he would win.) Republicans are criticized for talking about ‘momentum’ which seems like a pretty harmless thing to claim, less than a week before election. And then there is Tom Steyer, the turn-coat fossil fuel hedge fund gazillionaire who has put over 50 million dollars into various midterm campaigns and is now the largest contributor to candidates in this cycle. Hey! What about the Koch Brothers? Nope. Steyer and the Unions, pulling a Ben Bernanke, dropping money from helicopters at the last minute in an attempt to win tough senate and house races, and beat people like Wisconsin’s Scott Walker. Finally, a general discussion of how the podcasts intend to cover election night, and the next podcast on the polls. Waiting now for the last spate of polls in the pipeline to be released before election day, and we’ll see if there are any hard and fast ‘predictions’ that can be made. The media continues to set people up emotionally on both sides of the political spectrum to believe predictions that you can’t factually make, and the result is a sense of futility, frustration and disenfranchisement when the expected scenario does not materialize. Elections throughout American history have always been unpredictable, even before 24/7 cable news coverage, screaming roundtables, table pounding talk show hosts and polls. Before the election, a prediction about what democrats will suggest to President Obama after the election, whether the Republicans win the senate or not. Finally a few words about the state of Minnesota Politics, after a visit to the Eastern side of the Saint Croix River, in Wisconsin. Sponsored by Baklund R&D. 

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Podcast 235

Walk and Talk. Review of last week’s Ebola and political news, on an evening neighborhood walk, during a perfect fall night in the Upper Midwest. What’s the first thing you thought about when you woke up today? How about the difference in being born during this time, or perhaps 1418? (Editor’s Note: Yes, this is the first thing I thought about when I woke up the day I did this podcast. Who knows where that came from!). The 1400’s? Probably not a great era to be born in no matter what your station in life; Peasant, or Royal. Life expectancy? Between 20 and 35 years. Probably the best place to live? A united China, at the dawn of the Ming Dynasty, in that era. 1400’s was also the peak of the North American Indians. While we can be concerned about the medieval things that happen in our time; Beheadings, the spread of Ebola and the fear associated with both, all other measurements of life these days compared to say, 1418 are much more desirable. Speaking of Ebola. At the suggestion of Republican Senator John McCain, President Obama has appointed an Ebola Czar. Now everyone is upset that the Ebola Czar isn’t a General. Really? How can moderate Republicans like McCain go around talking about ‘smaller government’ when their best suggestion on how to handle Ebola is more government? How did that work out with The Department of Homeland Security after 9/11. The President oversees the Defense Department, NIH, the CDC and has a Surgeon General. What about Obama being the Ebola Czar since he’s responsible. Minnesota’s Republican Senate Candidate Mike McFadden finally hits a home run by advocating a travel ban, while Senator Al Franken wants to think about it some more. Meanwhile, the President tells America not to ‘panic’. Who’s in charge? According to the New York Times, President Obama is privately ‘livid’ that apparently no one is. Message to the President: “Pssst…Sir…uh…You’re in charge!”. Additional thoughts on the President’s no drama process. Maybe he just doesn’t want to do what anyone else wants to do, and uses ‘process’ as an excuse. Philosophically, he doesn’t believe the US is exceptional, blames European Colonialism for the problems of the world, and hews pretty much to the progressive belief in expanding government … particularly the Federal Government, and actually the executive branch of the federal government. Houston, we have a problem. We have a bad president, and if we can make it to January 20th 2017, we’ll have a new one. Hopefully someone who has had executive experience as Governor and not another former Senator, and please no more community organizers! Finally, the political ‘moneyballers’ continue to predict a Republican Wave, for the election on November 4th, 2014 and then take back the prediction. What’s the difference between political scientists, television personalities and writers who know how to use excel? Political scientists concentrate on real voting data, historically, and use poll data sparingly. We won’t know what will happen in this election, until at least November 4th, 2014 — late into the evening. Sponsored by XGovernmentcars! 

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