Podcast 447

Ted Cruz In Saint Paul. This podcast takes you inside a political event in Saint Paul on a cold winter night. From heading out in Mobile Podcast Command Unit 8, to making coffee in Mobile Podcast Command, parked with the media trucks, to trying to sneak into restricted meetings, interviews with Cruz Minnesota Organizer Mandy Benz, State Representative Cindy Pugh, an unidentified (by her choice) Cruz advance planner, to 2nd District Congressional Candidate and old friend Jason Lewis, put headphones on and follow me. The brand new media story line is that Texas Senator and candidate for the Republican presidential nomination Ted Cruz is running second to Donald Trump and therefore ‘could be the guy’. Two months ago the Senator sent his father, this time he came in person, with reporters clustered around the door he was supposed to walk through, while technicians set up cameras on a riser in the back of the small Harriet Island indoor pavilion. As people filled the room, a giant screen showed campaign videos complete with all your favorite national talk show hosts talking about how great Ted Cruz will be when he becomes president. An introduction from a local preacher, more videos, and finally the main event…Senator Cruz throwing ‘red meat’.  Boy, can he sling it! From rescinding Obama’s executive orders, to ‘utterly destroying ISIS’, this crowd loved it. Cruz’ strategy is to organize and concentrate on winning the Iowa caucuses, and use that momentum to win in enough key Super Tuesday states in the mid south, out west and along the eastern seaboard to gain the momentum to win the nomination, and the presidency. Can he do it? Or is he the new flavor of the month. We’ll know when people start to vote in roughly a month. Sponsored by X Government Trucks and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul. 

Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 37:30 — ) | Embed

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | RSS

Podcast 433

Voting Surprises. Elections held on November 3rd, 2015 show the potential for voters to surprise and even shock media, pundits and commentators. Is a Tea-Party Republican victory in the Kentucky Governor’s race a harbinger of surprises to come once people start actually voting in the primaries and caucuses starting February 1st, 2016? Voters in Ohio rejected legalizing Marijuana, Democrats in Virginia lost their bid to gain control of the State Senate, and LGBT rights legislation failed in Houston, Texas. Is this a conservative voting trend? The next actual election is November 21st in Louisiana, where polls say a Democrat is favored to win the bid to replace Republican Governor Bobby Jindal. Is the chattering class underestimating the possibility that conservative voters could show up in large numbers, shifting the country to the right. Same question applies to the grip of establishment republicans on power in the GOP. It is dangerous to believe polls, especially this early in the process. When it comes to real political science, the proof is in the pudding. If there is a trend of angry voters on the right turning out, the punditry is going to be caught flat footed, but the establishment republicans will be shocked. One gets the impression, reporters and commentators covering these elections hear so many stump speeches and have so much red meat thrown at them they get jaded when it comes to the degree of frustration of ordinary voters. The turmoil on the right is a storm brewed up by svengali strategists at the RNC who expected to crown Jeb Bush the nominee. Now Trump, Carson and Cruz threaten the whole house of cards, demanding their own rules for debates or upsetting the carefully constructed plan. Outliers Trump and Sanders on the left are shaking up the status quo and challenging the idea that suzerains in Washington get to decide who the nominee will be on either side. In the real news, things don’t seem to be going so well and the commentariat continues to write tripe. The GDP only ‘grew’ 1.5 percent, but don’t worry growth is expected when consumers, ‘spending the savings from lower gas prices like a tax cut’ finally kicks in. A new study done by Democrat Operatives that says Mergers and Acquisitions are causing ‘inequality’. Is this true? Meanwhile Congressional Republicans lift the debt ceiling and federal spending jumped by 338 billion dollars. Maybe they should be talking about cutting spending rather than cutting taxes? Sponsored by Pride of Homes and Luke Team Real Estate and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul. 

Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 33:26 — ) | Embed

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | RSS

Podcast 421

Ignore The Polls. We are awash in polling data early in the 2016 election cycle, enabling politics to be covered like sports. In sports though, teams actually play the games, generating the scores and statistics. Champions emerge during and at the end of the season based on real results. The media, political pollsters and charlatans are deciding what candidates we’ll listen to, and perhaps vote for based on political opinion surveys called ‘polls’, not to be confused with voting. When people actually vote, or caucus, then it will generate actual data. In the meantime, why don’t they consult astrologers and tarot card readers, because it would be just as reliable and accurate as political opinion surveys. Conversations over the weekend convinced me to do another polling podcast, to explain what it is, what its limitations are, and why you are better off reading a book or raking leaves, than watching the soothsayers on Fox News. No, the poll that shows Trump in the lead does not mean a ‘plurality’ of ‘voters’ want Trump. Yes he could win a general election, so could Hillary Clinton, or any other potential candidate if conditions are right. One thing is for sure; Once people actually vote and caucus there will be surprises. There will be surprises through the primary season, conventions, until the actual election on November 8th, 2016. Or not. The travesty is that we allow television networks, pollsters, and the cartoonery of pundits and loud mouths to decide for us who debates, who wins, and who polls. The result is someone — maybe the exact wrong person — ends up in charge of the most expensive and dangerous government in the world. Are you alright with Fox, CNN, and MSNBC in concert with three or four pollsters, deciding the candidates for that job? Sponsored by Pride of Homes and Luke Team Real Estate and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul. 

Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 40:22 — ) | Embed

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | RSS