Podcast 247

Republicans Win! Election 2014 coverage. The final installment from Election Control deep inside the Broadcast Bunker. A minute by minute account of the election results on November 4th 2014. Starting out the podcast skeptical of big Republican wins and finally witnessing an historic ‘wave’ election. The GOP won 8-9 seats in the US Senate taking control of the upper house, more than 12 seats in the House, and 31 gubernatorial contests; The Governor’s races alone are headlines. Wisconsin’s Governor Walker won a tough race leading a number of significant Republican holds, with Governor’s mansion pick ups in 3 traditionally Democrat states; Illinois, Maryland and Massachusetts. In Minnesota the news isn’t so good. While the Republicans won back control of the State House of Representatives, they lost big statewide races including Governor and the US Senate. Stewart Mills, the Republican favored to win in the 8th District lost his bid to unseat Congressman Nolan. (Editor’s Note: The big issue for me was whether predictions of Republicans winning 6 or more seats in the US Senate would come true. I did not feel the polls warranted that prediction, as close races in Kansas, North Carolina and Colorado could have gone either way, but in fact, the polls were pretty close this time. I said a Republican wave was certainly possible. I would rather be surprised, than be disappointed, so I was a little surprised, and you can hear it happen as the podcast progresses through the evening. All predictions, correct and incorrect aside, this is why we have elections; so we can see what happens.) With historic wins by the Republicans in the midyear, the question now is whether President Obama will seek to conciliate and compromise with the new congress, with a much stronger Republican majority than the 113th Congress. What tack will the Republican Senate take with the President on Immigration, Obamacare, Judges, Foreign Policy as well as House investigations on a variety of subjects? Will a Republican Senate seek compromise with the President. If it does, will this endanger a Republican victory in 2016? How will democrats across the country react to this huge victory by Republicans? Is the victory based on low turnout by Democrats, or high turnout by Republicans? Were these votes a repudiation of President Obama, or based on local issues? To be fair, Republican wins are so broad based — Governor’s, House and Senate — its hard not to see it as a statement of disapproval of the President’s policies and leadership by voters. Will President Obama dig in his heels and fight a move to the center? Only time will tell. Sponsored by Baklund R&D. 

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Podcast 246

Final Polls Before Election. Election 2014 Coverage. As this podcast is posted, it is the early hours of Election Day 2014 in the United States. One third of the US Senate, all of the House of Representatives, scores of Governors and State Representatives and Senators across the country, are waiting to see what an unpredictable electorate will decide. These races are very important to the lives of the people in these individual states, and to the people of the country as a whole. Politics is not Sports, but it is being covered as though it is. Politicians are presented as players. Speech writers, campaign managers, party officials and insiders as coaches, former politicians and pundits become willing participants in what is being described as the ‘pageant’ of American politics. Viewers and listeners become invested in which ‘team’ wins or loses, and so emotionally identify with a ‘side’, as though that reflects the true nature of politics. The relationship between voters and their representatives is complex and runs deep. Since cable television news channels decided to give up reporting the news, and copied talk radio’s format, television now pushes people to the right or left paradigm in order to keep them watching. Although political polling was a factor in election coverage before 2010, controversy over Obama Care spurred the Tea Party Movement, and carried Republicans to a majority in the House of Representatives. In 2012 the polls indicated a slight advantage for Republican candidate Mitt Romney, and the Republican establishment felt it was entitled to the presidency. Only a few people said the polls were too close (Editor’s Note: I was one of them), but they were ignored in the headlong confirmation between Republicans that they would ‘win’. Moral of the story? Polls can be wrong. Really wrong. And here we are again, in November of 2014, with the election ‘moneyballers’ applying sports statistical analysis to something as widely variable and unreliable as political polling, and not just political polling but, polling in individual states. Added to this, media executives, producers, program directors and editors pushing their writers, broadcasters and guests to conclude, predict and provoke the audience, just as long as they watch another twenty four hours. And then there is the relentless onrush of negative mailers, attack ads, flaps and gaffes that go viral through social media and become ‘news stories. In this podcast, we’ll run down the polls one more time and make no predictions. At the end of this special edition election update from The Bob Davis Podcasts you’ll know how the polls stand in the so called ‘battleground’ states, and you’ll be able to come to your own conclusions about whether the predictions are outlandish or not. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul, and by Depotstar. 

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Podcast 244

Halloween 2. The second of 2 Halloween podcasts. This one is a final, relaxed analysis of the political landscape before we head into Election Day next week. Now the election ‘moneyballers’; so called analysts who have been predicting a ‘republican wave’, or not predicting a ‘republican wave’ have begun to hedge their bets as the polls and races tighten. This is a continuing disservice to Americans, because we are being set up to believe the polls show a specific outcome. The 2014 election cycle is 435 local congressional districts, one third of the Senate in statewide races, scores of state legislature races (for example the Minnesota House, but not the Senate.) and races for the Governor’s mansion. The idea that any poll or any number of polls can be predictive of this disparate election terrain is and always has been ridiculous. Did you know, for example, that Colorado’s entire election this year is being conducted with mail in ballots, almost 2 million of which have not yet been received. Meanwhile opinion polls are too close to call across the country, and races that were republican ‘locks’ have flipped, and races that were democrat locks have flipped. And here come the sandbaggers. People who are still sour grapes because they predicted Romney would win in 2012, and have never lived it down. (Editor’s Note: I said all along Romney would lose, and the polls never showed he would win.) Republicans are criticized for talking about ‘momentum’ which seems like a pretty harmless thing to claim, less than a week before election. And then there is Tom Steyer, the turn-coat fossil fuel hedge fund gazillionaire who has put over 50 million dollars into various midterm campaigns and is now the largest contributor to candidates in this cycle. Hey! What about the Koch Brothers? Nope. Steyer and the Unions, pulling a Ben Bernanke, dropping money from helicopters at the last minute in an attempt to win tough senate and house races, and beat people like Wisconsin’s Scott Walker. Finally, a general discussion of how the podcasts intend to cover election night, and the next podcast on the polls. Waiting now for the last spate of polls in the pipeline to be released before election day, and we’ll see if there are any hard and fast ‘predictions’ that can be made. The media continues to set people up emotionally on both sides of the political spectrum to believe predictions that you can’t factually make, and the result is a sense of futility, frustration and disenfranchisement when the expected scenario does not materialize. Elections throughout American history have always been unpredictable, even before 24/7 cable news coverage, screaming roundtables, table pounding talk show hosts and polls. Before the election, a prediction about what democrats will suggest to President Obama after the election, whether the Republicans win the senate or not. Finally a few words about the state of Minnesota Politics, after a visit to the Eastern side of the Saint Croix River, in Wisconsin. Sponsored by Baklund R&D. 

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