Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862

Republicans Hate Polls…Unless They Show Trump In The Lead

There’s so much bias these days on every media platform there’s no trust. A conversation with a republican friend lead to this podcast about whether polls lie. Find out more by listening to Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862.

Who Did The Poll?

First of all when it comes to polling, the first question a republican will ask is, “Who did the poll”. Especially if it reflects poorly on the president. In addition their second favorite response is, “No One Called Me”. Gah!

What Poll Will You Accept?

In contrast I wonder, “What poll would you accept?“.

Polling Explained. Again.

It’s time again to explain polling and the potential for a republican win or loss in 2020.

No bias or predictions. Just the lay of the land.

Accept and Consider Information Challenging Your Position

Above all political true believers reject any poll that doesn’t show their guy winning. Even more, political analysis requires accepting and considering information that challenges you.

Approval Ratings 101

In Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862 front and center are approval ratings and their ability to predict winners.

Past Elections

Moreover I’ll look at how you can use polls to make solid judgements. I’ll also talk about the history of past elections as a tool.

Polls Don’t Lie … The Media Lies

Not only do I reject the assertion the polls “lie”. When averaged they can be quite predictive.

Unfortunately the wholesale ignorance of polling in our media is especially relevant. For Example, while the polls in 2016 showed a close race for president, they never predicted a Clinton win.

Trump Struggles In The Battleground States

Finally at issue are tracking polls showing the president’s approval rating in battleground states plummeting. With manufacturing reportedly in recession in Wisconsin and Michigan, republican bosses are concerned. They should be. Trump has to win the battleground states to win a second term.

A Republican Siding With The UAW?

Perhaps it is for that reason that the president is rumored to want to intervene in a current GM strike, in favor of the UAW.

History And No Judgements

Therefore this podcast is valuable because it looks at chances for both a landslide as well as a tough race, without judgements and predictions. There’s a lot of information here about past presidential races, the history of polling and approval ratings. It might come in handy.

Sponsored by Reliafund Payment Processors and The Strategic Business Planners at Virtus Law

Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862

Recession-Warning-Media-Confusion-Bob Davis Podcast 855

What Is All This Talk About Recession

These days it’s hard to tell who to believe. In many ways it’s the best economy ever. The best time to look for a job. An unprecedented economic boom. Why is everyone suddenly talking about a recession. Learn more in Recession-Warning-Media-Confusion-Bob Davis Podcast 855.

Not Making Predictions

First of all I am not here to tell you the economy is in the tank, or that it is booming.

Recession! Depression! Do I have Your Attention Now?

Truth is if you put the words recession, bust, or depression in an article you’re going to get people’s attention. In addition it doesn’t hurt to have a couple of historic drops in the stock market.

Now that I have your attention…Listen to Recession-Warning-Media-Confusion-Bob Davis Podcast 855.

Market Drops and Yield Curves Mean New Media Story Lines

It doesn’t matter if the markets recover from those drops.

What matters is now the media has a story line that predicts doom and destruction.

Fool’s Errand

Especially relevant is a lesson I learned a long time ago. It doesn’t matter how well informed a commentator might be. Making predictions about a force of nature like the world’s largest economy, is a fool’s errand.

Shallow Expansion, Debt and Slowing Growth

Even more, it is true our economy is growing and we are enjoying the longest economic expansion in memory. It’s also true it’s a shallow expansion and that growth just above the inflation line, isn’t really booming. Moreover, the expansion is getting pretty long in the tooth, as the say.

There Is A Season

In contrast like the seasons, economies operate on a cycle. Truth is anyone who predicts a recession will ultimately be right. Just like fall into winter recessions have a purpose. Economic contractions kill off the weak plants and animals and insects so the strong and grow again in the spring.

So when the yield curve inverts and the market drops it is certainly worth paying attention.

Seems like we’re missing something though. While the politicians and talking heads trade insults about who’s predictions are right, what are we thinking about?

Election Year Economics

In conclusion what plans to we the people have for the future economy of the United States. I sat down to do a podcast on the yield curve, claims about unemployment and recession predictions. I ended up with an essay on the pitfalls of talking economy in an election year, the ballyhoo on the current economy when the real questions aren’t even being asked. Let alone answered.

It’s 1950 In America…Coal Mines and Manufacturing, right?

Where are we going? What are we trying to accomplish? What kind of economy do we expect in the future. Is it really manufacturing jobs in Ohio and Coal Mines in West Virginia?

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul and Reliafund Payment Processors

Recession-Warning-Media-Confusion-Bob Davis Podcast 855

 

Post Eclipse Radio-Bob Davis Podcast 849

Walk and Talk

These days things are happening fast and furious. Every now and then I have to take a breath and review some of my past podcasts. Moreover there’s no better way to do a review podcast, than a late night walk and talk. Check it out in Post Eclipse Radio-Bob Davis Podcast 849.

Answering Critics

In addition some of the most recent podcasts have turned out to be controversial. This is a good time to answer my critics and make some additional points.

Post Eclipse Radio

We’re coming off two huge eclipses. A solar eclipse at the beginning of July, and just recently a full moon lunar eclipse. Especially relevant are my observations about eclipse energy.

Pledge Podcast Aftermath

First of all in the last week I did two podcasts that have turned out to be controversial. My podcast covering an emotional demonstration against the Saint Louis Park City Council’s decision to stop saying the pledge of allegiance at some of their meetings, can be found here. And a podcast about Trump’s chances for reelection based on the 2016 and 2018 vote totals in battleground states, here.

Facts Are Controversial

One of the points in my coverage of this protest is most of the protesters screaming and shouting “resign!” at the council meeting to discuss the pledge decision, were not residents of Saint Louis Park. Apparently pointing out that fact was controversial.

Why Don’t You Criticize Democrats!

Also, my critics like to demand that I explain why “you don’t ever criticize democrats”. So, during this walk and talk I’ll tell you. Learn more in Post Eclipse Radio-Bob Davis Podcast 849.

Bought and Paid For Media

Finally because there are no rules or planning for a walk and talk podcast, reviews of recent podcasts evolved into a discussion of bias. It sure seems like we’re living in a world these days where every single ‘news’ source or pundit has been bought. This has contributed to a loss of principles and integrity in our discourse.

Independent Voices

Consequently we all have to be careful with sources. Rather than repeat what someone else said, independent voices move the story forward by researching that facts and sharing them. People don’t seem to be able to do that anymore. This is one of the reasons my recent podcast explored actual vote totals in battleground states the president has to win again in 2020, if he is to have any chance to win reelection, let alone win by a landslide, as some have foolishly predicted.

Clearing The Air and Bias

In conclusion I love these walk and talk podcasts. They help me clear the air. Then I can move on to the next few podcasts. Walk and Talk podcasts also help me to identify my own biases, which usually run to distrust for government in general not against or for political parties or candidates or issue advocacy.

Living Dangerously

Personally I think we need to move beyond responding to flashpoint issues. That means some of us are going to have to listen to opinions we might not agree with as we develop new principles that lead to working policy. I’ve always lived dangerously by talking about things just before they go viral. These days I think that’s a real good place to be.

Sponsored by Reliafund Payment Processors

Post Eclipse Radio-Bob Davis Podcast 849