Podcast 541

Podcast 541. Electoral College Yoga. Get ready to twist your brain into pretzel like shapes as I talk about the electoral college, polls, and what the benchmarks for Election 2016 are so far. I’ll do another benchmark in about a month and one just before the election in late October, or early November. There are a lot of caveats on polling data. While most media people and their viewers seem to want to talk about national presidential preference polls, the proof of the pudding is in the state by state polls. The United States does not elect its presidents with a national vote. In fact, a presidential election is fifty state elections. Voters are selecting a slate of electors, chosen and voting generally according to state law and state party rules. So when you hear one candidate is ‘ahead’ over another in a national poll it really doesn’t mean anything. In 2008 and again in 2012 Republicans in particular were so hopeful based on national preference polls that if you said McCain or Mitt Romney wasn’t going to win, you were ‘raining on the parade’. But, if you looked closely at state polls in those election cycles, the outcome was not a surprise. State polls have their own problems; Smaller sample size, different polling methodologies, and in some states they are no polls until just before the election. While its not advisable to compare different polls of different sources and methodologies, we do it all the time. We’re looking for trends primarily. Currently while Donald J. Trump leads Hillary Clinton in a national presidential preference poll, the state polls tell a completely different story. It’s not a good story for republicans. The case isn’t closed. Trump still has time, but time is fleeting. I don’t support any candidate. I’m not working for any candidate. I’m not going to tell you how to vote. I’m also not going to spin the polling data to make you think something can happen, or is going to happen. If you want the straight talk on what’s going on, the Bob Davis Podcasts is the place to check back for these benchmark state-by-state analyses as we progress to Election Day 2016. Sponsored by Karow Contracting and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.

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Podcast 538

Western Minnesota Road Trip. Freestyle talk about my travel in the last last 6 weeks. My reflections on a weekend jaunt to Western Minnesota’s New Ulm and Walnut Grove, tying in the talk about technology threatening jobs in the future. Recent road trips have intensified my interest in the history of the Western United States. There is a lot of significant western history in Minnesota. We often think of historic topics like Indian Wars and Pioneers has happening further west, but one of the bloodiest clashes between settlers and American Indians happened in New Ulm in 1862, when the mostly German townspeople had to barricade the streets of their town to fight off attacks by the Dakota. Further west is Walnut Grove, the home of Laura Ingalls Wilder and the famous ‘Little House On The Prairie’. While the museum in Walnut Grove could use a little bit better curation, some of the artifacts in the museum are interesting, especially grasshoppers or Locusts the size of a man’s hand, which plagued the settlers of Walnut Grove. When you examine items in a museum, it’s easy to think about how old they are. For the people of the time though, it was new technology. It’s fun to flip the script and wonder what our descendants will think of the artifacts of our time in a museum at some point a hundred years from now. Today, supposedly new tech like robotics and autonomous machines and software threatens millions of jobs. Proposed ‘solutions’ to this ‘threat’, like guaranteed minimum incomes and job retraining programs don’t make much sense. When people came west for opportunity, 140 years ago, they didn’t have job retraining programs. They couldn’t have known they’d be plagued by grasshoppers the size of a man’s hand. Yet they came anyway. We need to start thinking about the opportunity new technology provides us in building a new world, and stop being so negative all the time. Sponsored by Karow Contracting and Hydrus Performance.

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Podcast 536

Podcast 536-Midnight Thoughts. Back in the studio after a long road trip. The excitement of travel gives way to scanning the news and wondering what to talk about in this podcast. Hence, Podcast 536-Midnight Thoughts. Midnight Random thoughts perhaps? But. No. Specific observations about the role of podcasting and transcending the nonsense in day to day politics. In fact the more I talk about politics the more I feel physically revolted by it and physically almost unable to talk about it. Why? Because what is going on distracts and obscures. Our politics in the United States no longer enlightens and illuminates. Our politics is no longer a soaring bird, but a slithering ‘thing’ down in the mud and dirt and grime. It’s depressing, boring, frightening and at the same time ridiculous. While I have not lost my passion and interest in what is going on politically, I find more people inexplicably joining tribes committed to convincing those in the opposing tribes with one ridiculous argument after another, spitting out what has been drummed into them hour after hour from social media, 24 hour cable TV news, talk radio and so on. Not wanting to harp on those same themes, all I can say is it is truly Orwellian; like there really is a little man behind a curtain pulling on levers. For me, the antidote to all this is travel; actually witnessing events. When you see it go down ‘for real’, you realize many things you see and hear are designed for video. The protests at the conventions? If you were there you had to go find them because you could hardly tell they were happening. The guy climbing Trump Tower in New York? If you were on Wall Street, or on the subway, or in the Bronx you didn’t even know it was happening. Did it? Did it mean anything? What’s important? I think it’s a the conversation podcasters have with their listener/subscribers one on one, based on the inner thoughts we share. It’s one of the things podcasting can do that radio doesn’t do anymore. Maybe the best thing we can do is provide a venue that helps you have that conversation. The news these days seems more like greek theater and less like, well news. Reporting on events, gathering facts and making observations based on those facts. You all know this, because I talk about it too much. I realized while traveling and while thinking about this podcast tonight that so much of what is happening in 2016, I’ve already done detailed podcasts about. For example, podcasts about the death of the conservative ‘movement’  over the years, and we’re just starting to see people write and talk about it. So, use the search window to listen to those podcasts. Meanwhile, the travel podcasts, the podcasts reporting on breaking local news, the podcasts about deeply felt emotions are the ones that resonate with me and hopefully with you. Finally, all this feels like its leading up to something; some big thing that is epoch changing, and you know, historically pivotal. Something we’ll talk about for decades after. As the rain comes down, it’s fun to be back in the studio and talk it out. Sponsored by Karow Contracting and Hydrus.

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