Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 1-Bob Davis Podcast 753

Every two years the entire US House of Representatives has to run for election. The predictions of the prognosticators concerning these elections are most noteworthy. The sages say as many as 58 republican seats are in jeopardy. We’ll find out in a series of podcasts that examine each of these house races in detail. Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 1-Bob Davis Podcast 753.

Predictions Are Dangerous

I hate predictions, Moreover I find while the media loves to ‘nationalize’ house and senate elections most of the time they turn on local issues not the national issues. One of the reasons predictions are often be wrong.

Especially relevant, so many of these races are considered toss ups.

Calibrating The Crystal Ball

There’s only way to determine whether men staring into crystal balls can predict the future. You have to examine each district one at a time.

In part one we look at several districts in California, Colorado, and Florida. More are on the way.

Travel Makes Great Political Analysis

I am happy to say I have been to many of these districts in Mobile Podcast Command. ‘Just passing through’ doesn’t give you some gift for the truth but it does help to visualize. Because I travel I have additional knowledge that is invaluable when it comes to understanding what’s going on in some of these elections.

Pivot Counties Are Well…Pivotal

Similarly it helps to have visited to some of the so called ‘Pivot Counties‘ and to have traveled through areas these guys on TV probably have not seen recently, if ever. It all adds up to the realization that all politics really is local.

New Political Environment?

Because I traveled in 2016 I was able to to realize early on something different was brewing. I think we’re still in a new political environment. All the more reason not to avoid the tarot card readers on TV. Listen to Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 1-Bob Davis Podcast 753 instead.

No Predictions Just Information And a Baseline For You

While I won’t predict anything in 2018 I think it is fair to say we’re in a new environment politically in which almost anything can happen. Moreover whatever is happening may not show up in polls and primary election data.

Isn’t that what makes watching the outcome so much fun?

Sponsored by Reliafund Payment Processors and The Water Butler Water Purification Systems

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 1-Bob Davis Podcast 753

Podcast 519

Off The Rails. As we head into the long fourth of July weekend, world events aren’t taking the weekend off. On the heels of the British Exit vote, comes the Istanbul attack. Apparently we now live in an upside down world where speech is considered so dangerous, Nigel Farage’s speech to the European Union Parliament – an unelected body – can be considered hate speech, while an actor accepting an award in the United States — where free speech is a constitutional right —  considers opinions opposite to his own on race to be so dangerous those who speak them should ‘sit down and shut up’. Then, inexplicably, in the wake of obvious ISIS style terror attacks in Istanbul, Secretary of State Kerry warns people not to rush to judgement on whether ISIS is involved or not. So let me get this straight. Speech is more dangerous than men with AK-47’s wearing suicide vests? Moreover, the Republican standard bearer – so far – is a trade protectionist who wants to double down on the Bush Steel Tariff debacle, republicans including a former president, are endorsing the ‘presumptive’ democratic nominee while Bernie Sanders of all people came off as the most reasonable person in Washington this week when he warned democrats to heed the results of the British Vote for what it might mean to ‘establishment’ politicians like Hillary Clinton. Off The Rails you say? Hell yes. There is a palpable feeling that all this is leading up to a major event; something that cannot be foreseen that changes everything: The stock market crash of 1929, Pearl Harbor, the JFK assassination, the fall of the Berlin Wall, and 9-11. World changing events after which you say, “Remember what things were like back in…? It’s so different now.” Have you ever been lost hiking? At some point you look up and say, “Where the Hell am I?”. Its feels like that kind of a moment in the world right now. How did we get here? What happens now? A late night podcast from the deck, examining these issues, but not too deeply. It is after all the 4th of July weekend, let’s party like it’s 2016. Sponsored by Brush Studio in the West End, and X Government Cars.

PODCAST 430

You’re Not That Hot Anymore. Are the institutions of our society failing us, or just failing to live up to their over the top narratives? A bad customer service experience leads into a discussion – presented as sort of a rant but meant as a question  – about whether the business models and technology that seemed so forward five to ten years ago don’t seem that way at all now. Technology companies, Internet Service Providers, consumer products, office supplies, services, health care, travel, utilities and all kinds of services in the western world seem to have stopped progressing in terms of service to the customer a few years ago. No longer is it good enough to deliver a great product or service, you have to have an ‘amazing’ story, be saving the whales, or making your product in some aboriginal prefecture where you pay fair wages and post the obligatory pictures of building schools, or handing out water at the local marathon or breast cancer walk. What happened to buying a toaster that works, and when it doesn’t being able to rely on a customer service approach that says, “Yep, here’s a new one”? Instead you get protocols, upsells, long waits at the help desk (with the same three songs that play over and over) bored, surly or overwhelmed ticket agents, or admissions ‘techs’. The gauntlet of nose-ring festooned ‘greeters’ sporting ‘man-buns’ or just plain mean city, county, state and federal workers is actually the new normal. We need to talk about it, and we need to fix it. Is the problem that companies are spending too much time saving the whales, and not enough time saving the customer? Or is it excessive government regulation, poor economic growth, or we’re just not as competent as our ‘amazing’ history and resume says we are? No institution in our society is more dangerously corrupt and incompetent than the government, despite what the politicians say about Wall Street. What can be done? Meanwhile…still on hold with customer service. Sponsored by X Government Trucks and Pride of Homes and Luke Team Real Estate. (Editor’s Note: Podcast 429 isn’t done yet, and will be on the way…so here’s podcast 430. Don’t worry you didn’t miss one.

Podcast 426

How Media Has Changed. I’m about to go to my high school reunion, but for me, it’s a different kind of high school reunion. At over a thousand in my graduating class, it was way to big and impersonal for a full reunion. So, we’re having a reunion of graduates of the school’s ‘radio lab’ program, which included the high school radio station, where the ‘radio bug’ first bit. In a mid fall relaxed conversation on the deck with a fire, on a warm midnight, it’s time to talk about how television and radio have changed over the years giving way to social media, time shifting, video games, You Tube, cable only series and now serial dramas, really produced exclusively for viewing on line, or on specific sites. We used to have a collective experience — watching the same shows when they came on or watching events as they unfolded in real time. Those shared societal experiences don’t happen very often these days, aside from sporting events or monolithic breaking news stories. We do have collective experiences, but they happen at different times. What are you watching these days? Dramas? News? Comedy? Documentaries? Most people aren’t watching commercials anymore, taking the feed direct from the line, but they’re time shifting, watching more TV, consuming more information, but in a different way. How have opportunities to message the public changes. Besides, its fun sometimes to talk about what we’re watching. What is media? Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul and Eric and Erum Lucero of Pride of Homes and Luke Team Real Estate.  

Podcast 323

Obama Checks Out. After the President’s White House summit on ‘extremist violence’, a firestorm of controversy erupted when he refused to characterize the ‘extremists’ – the subject of the summit – in language that would actually describe them. Our current problem is, after all, referred to as THE ISLAMIC STATE! The President reminds us lowly peasants we are not to refer to the Islamic State as Islamic Terrorists, or even ‘Islamic’. This is apparently so that the President will still be invited to cocktail parties with the nuanced and beautiful. Obama also took care this week to describe the ‘root’ of the problem in the Middle East as a ‘lack of jobs and democracy’. This is a statement which is patently false, since almost all top Islamists hail from upper middle class families, and are well educated. Critics say the President is never going to be able to defeat the Islamist Threat if he can’t name it. The bottom line? Whether President Obama knows it or not, he has telegraphed to the American people and the world he has checked out. Its clear he just wants to make it to January 2017 with his ‘legacy’ intact. For this, we are grateful. We do not want this president conducting a major war, as long as we can get through the next 22 months or so without being blown to smithereens, burned in a cage or beheaded by ‘extremely violent people’. If you’re upset about the possible threat, channel the angst into the 2016 presidential race, because the next guy in is going to have a lot of work to do. It will fall on the next President and Congress to figure out how to clean up this mess, because the current President isn’t going to do a damn thing about ISIS, Putin, or anything else. Do we really want him to? It seems all the world’s leaders are at a loss to figure out what to do about anything. The EU is on the verge of a financial crisis and is probably in a recession, while its leaders burn the midnight oil feverishly negotiating cease fires that are apparently meaningless to people like Putin. As fighting between Ukrainian government troops and ‘separatists’ in eastern Ukraine intensified, ending in a rout for the Ukrainian troops, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said of the short lived cease fire negotiated just last weekend in Minsk, “It’s not Munich’. Is there anyone in charge these days? Or are they all waiting for their people to tell them what to do? Do they know what to do? (Wait! Don’t answer that.) The real question is what the US role in the world should be, and how this country should handle itself. This is a question that is clearly being left up to the people. Some final updates and conclusions on the foreign policy front to end the week. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing

 

 

PODCAST 163

The Situation In Iraq. As things in Iraq deteriorate former Vice President Dick Cheney throws a zinger at President Obama. Are we now back in a bi-polar ‘Bush Was Wrong-It’s Not Obama’s Fault’ discussion? What should people who advocated for the war in Iraq (including lawmakers who voted to authorize it) say? President Obama as been in office almost 6 years, and has had time to arrange things in Iraq to his liking. How’s that working out? What is Obama responsible for? Is it his policy that leads to chaos enveloping the whole region? What impact did 9-11 have on talk radio and the way we talk about these issues? A late night walk-and-talk brings up some thoughts about all these subjects. And a critique of the remake of the 1967 Classic ‘Bonnie and Clyde’. Sponsored by Baklund R & D