Podcast 566-BobDavisRadioShow-50. October final State By State Poll roundup. Podcast 566-BobDavisRadioShow-50 covers the hysteria around polling these days and what to watch for in the final two weeks of campaigning. Charlatans abound in the political world. Almost everyone telling you one candidate, or the other, is going to win has a hidden agenda. Some want to make themselves famous. Some are shilling for a candidate. Ignorance on what political research actually is has now commingled with Trump’s claims the polls and thus the election are rigged. My response to a subscriber email about push polls is typical. Someone, somewhere talked about push polls so now everyone thinks the polls are push polls. Or, the John Podesta email suggesting internal polling over same democrats has everyone convinced all the pollsters are in the tank for Clinton. Sigh. The polls used on Real Clear Politics, and the polls I use for Podcast 566-BobDavisRadioShow-50 are polls taken by media organizations or university political science departments. A push poll is a poll designed to ‘push’ a respondent into voting one way or another. Usually there is very little polling data collected in so called Push Polls. Are the polls right? A good poll isn’t right or wrong, it is reliable. Listen to this show and you’ll know more about polling than anyone on your block. Listen to the other podcasts about polling I have done and you’ll understand more about what is going on. First, it is not a popular vote that elects the President of the United States. The US Election is an electoral affair so all the action is in the state by state polls. You can aggregate these polls. You can average these polls. However, you cannot aggregate and average them and place a probability on whether one or the other candidate will win. All the poll averaging does is give you a birds eye view of the battlefield. The must win electoral states change election cycle to election cycle. No predictions will be made here. I will give you a truthful and honest analysis of where the mainline campaigns stand on the eve of election day, 2016. Sponsored by Hydrus Performance, Ryan Plumbing and X Government Cars.
Eclipse Radio. The three main takeaways from the news so far this week, hours before the Full Moon Lunar Eclipse on October 8th, 2014. The Blood Moon. Speaking of…While the pencil necked bureaucrats at the CDC say, “Nothing to see here folks!”, other medical scientists and researchers are not so quick to be cowed. Experts are worried – that is the word they use – the Ebola virus may spread more easily than the government assumes. The word is, there isn’t enough data to conclusively rule out the possibility the virus is only transmitted through contact with secreted substances from an infected person. There is also not enough data to conclusively determine how fast the virus can mutate, or whether the mutations would result in a less dangerous, or much more dangerous virus. People should also take note of the Enterovirus D-68 ‘Paralysis’ story, because the reporting on this one is terrible. We would like to know where these people are from, whether they have been vaccinated for Polio, and if they have come to this country recently. Meanwhile coverage of the the vacuous shout-fest between Ben Affleck and Bill Maher has apparently occupied the attention of every major commentator, despite the fact that a US Ally and NATO member Turkey, has abandoned The Kurdish people. As a result a massacre – at the very least – is in the wind as ISIS is about to take, or has taken the Kurdish town of Kobani, full of refugees from the Syrian Conflict. Oh by the way, those air-strikes? Didn’t work. On the election 2014 front, suddenly the political ‘Money Ballers’ are hedging their bets. The American people are really mad, though. Don’t know if we’ll vote, or who we’ll vote for, but the media knows for sure we’re mad. Finally some thoughts about the eclipse, superstition, how to deal with the Orwellian media reality in America today, and the coming of a new era. (Editors Note: It can’t get here fast enough for me!) Sponsored by Sedation and Implant Dentistry of Saint Paul and by Depot Star.
Superstition. Stevie Wonder wasn’t singing about your great grandmother, was he? We’re told we live in a complicated modern society, yet some of us believe things that can only be described as fantasy; superstition. While updating subscribers on the key stories for the week ahead, a question comes up? How does belief in conspiracy theory, apocalyptic theory and other fantasies detract from being able to make decisions based on fact, how do these modern-day superstitions effect rational problem solving? Especially since more and more adherents to these theories appear to be on the political ‘right’, which believes itself to be rational, as opposed to the ‘irrational’ and ’emotional’ left. We start with Ebola, and the rapidly spreading idea – usually through social media – ebola is a ‘weaponized virus’ being used to ‘scare’ the American people, or it is being brought over the border by illegals tasked specifically to infect Americans. This week features a full moon lunar eclipse. This is the second in a series of lunar ‘blood moon’ eclipses some say herald the apocalypse. (The other two are in 2015 so don’t worry, you don’t have long to wait.) Why are these eclipses called ‘blood’ moon eclipses? What’s special about this one? Did you know it’s Enterovirus Season? No, there aren’t any decorations for ‘Enterovirus Season’, or any special celebrations, but now adults are getting sick from the virus labeled ‘Enterovirus D68’, which is thought responsible for the deaths of at least one child, and paralysis in others. Enterovirus is a ‘common cold’ like virus, but apparently D68 packs a punch. A government that can’t provide security to its president, protect the borders or its embassies, collect taxes, or figure out how to solve the most vexing current problems is somehow managing a vast conspiracy to kill US Citizens? Finally, yet more fantasy coverage about the Republicans chances of winning the senate and gaining more seats in congress than they did in 1946. Admittedly always possible, but considering the democrat ground game in 2014 might sober up Republicans who believe this kind of hokum from the mainstream media. Or is it hokum? We’ll find out on November 4th around midnight. For Republicans, the question is, what are you doing to make this fantasy a reality? Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul, and Depot Star.