Podcast 541

Podcast 541. Electoral College Yoga. Get ready to twist your brain into pretzel like shapes as I talk about the electoral college, polls, and what the benchmarks for Election 2016 are so far. I’ll do another benchmark in about a month and one just before the election in late October, or early November. There are a lot of caveats on polling data. While most media people and their viewers seem to want to talk about national presidential preference polls, the proof of the pudding is in the state by state polls. The United States does not elect its presidents with a national vote. In fact, a presidential election is fifty state elections. Voters are selecting a slate of electors, chosen and voting generally according to state law and state party rules. So when you hear one candidate is ‘ahead’ over another in a national poll it really doesn’t mean anything. In 2008 and again in 2012 Republicans in particular were so hopeful based on national preference polls that if you said McCain or Mitt Romney wasn’t going to win, you were ‘raining on the parade’. But, if you looked closely at state polls in those election cycles, the outcome was not a surprise. State polls have their own problems; Smaller sample size, different polling methodologies, and in some states they are no polls until just before the election. While its not advisable to compare different polls of different sources and methodologies, we do it all the time. We’re looking for trends primarily. Currently while Donald J. Trump leads Hillary Clinton in a national presidential preference poll, the state polls tell a completely different story. It’s not a good story for republicans. The case isn’t closed. Trump still has time, but time is fleeting. I don’t support any candidate. I’m not working for any candidate. I’m not going to tell you how to vote. I’m also not going to spin the polling data to make you think something can happen, or is going to happen. If you want the straight talk on what’s going on, the Bob Davis Podcasts is the place to check back for these benchmark state-by-state analyses as we progress to Election Day 2016. Sponsored by Karow Contracting and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.

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Podcast 465

A Jeb Bush Event. Live from Sumter, South Carolina The Bob Davis Podcasts joins the Bush campaign for a Jeb Bush Event featuring Senator Lindsay Graham and Governor Bush. Originally planned for a local diner, the campaign had to move the event to the University of South Carolina, which was a shame since the potato soup at Baker’s Sweets in Sumter is amazing. Another feature of this podcast is to set the record straight regarding Jason Lewis’ appearance in Bob Davis Podcast 404, in which he stated he generally supported the President’s Iran deal with caveats. Lewis’ campaign for Congress in Minnesota’s Second District is apparently scaring his opponents so much, they’re excerpting liner notes about his foreign policy views, rather than actually listening to what he said in the podcast. There will be a new editorial note on podcast 404 which everyone can read, clarifying what Jason said. What is amazing about the current controversy surrounding Jason’s view that the country cannot have limited government at home and big government abroad is that when you’re on the campaign trail you hear republican candidates walking right up to the line advocating another war, and apparently Republicans love it. Maybe the 2nd District’s Republican candidate for congress is correct to question this impulse among all the GOP candidates? (You’ll hear it in this podcast too.) How can talk show hosts and commentators compare the current crop of bellicose campaigners with Ronald Reagan who negotiated, and kept the United States out of major military commitments and war for 8 years. Thus, a local congressional district issue dovetails beautifully with what a candidate says on the hustings in South Carolina. In any case, the Reagan era is over and is not coming back. The challenges of our current time are multi-polar, not bi-polar. Even the economic challenges are different. All these challenges will require new and different solutions that can only come from people who are able to consider opinions that might be unorthodox. Also in this podcast, a flavor of night life in Charleston, and some good bluegrass music. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul and Hydrus.

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