Podcast 541

Podcast 541. Electoral College Yoga. Get ready to twist your brain into pretzel like shapes as I talk about the electoral college, polls, and what the benchmarks for Election 2016 are so far. I’ll do another benchmark in about a month and one just before the election in late October, or early November. There are a lot of caveats on polling data. While most media people and their viewers seem to want to talk about national presidential preference polls, the proof of the pudding is in the state by state polls. The United States does not elect its presidents with a national vote. In fact, a presidential election is fifty state elections. Voters are selecting a slate of electors, chosen and voting generally according to state law and state party rules. So when you hear one candidate is ‘ahead’ over another in a national poll it really doesn’t mean anything. In 2008 and again in 2012 Republicans in particular were so hopeful based on national preference polls that if you said McCain or Mitt Romney wasn’t going to win, you were ‘raining on the parade’. But, if you looked closely at state polls in those election cycles, the outcome was not a surprise. State polls have their own problems; Smaller sample size, different polling methodologies, and in some states they are no polls until just before the election. While its not advisable to compare different polls of different sources and methodologies, we do it all the time. We’re looking for trends primarily. Currently while Donald J. Trump leads Hillary Clinton in a national presidential preference poll, the state polls tell a completely different story. It’s not a good story for republicans. The case isn’t closed. Trump still has time, but time is fleeting. I don’t support any candidate. I’m not working for any candidate. I’m not going to tell you how to vote. I’m also not going to spin the polling data to make you think something can happen, or is going to happen. If you want the straight talk on what’s going on, the Bob Davis Podcasts is the place to check back for these benchmark state-by-state analyses as we progress to Election Day 2016. Sponsored by Karow Contracting and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.

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Podcast 475

Fight For Your Caucus. Web Designer, Senate District Chair and CD5 Secretary Mitch Rossow joins the podcast to talk about the latest misguided initiative by mainstream republicans in Minnesota. State Representative Steve Garofalo and others want to get rid of the caucuses in Minnesota. Oddly enough, before Super Tuesday, the reason for getting rid of the caucus system was low participation. On Super Tuesday Minnesota experienced a record turnout for its caucuses. So now, apparently, there are too many people caucusing. Isn’t that what we want? Seems like the truth is those in power don’t like the caucus system because it allows for the grass roots to develop new leaders. Critics say the caucuses are too ‘inside’, but aren’t the critics the real insiders? It would be so much easier if the goons in Saint Paul picked party leaders and candidates rather than the citizens. The caucus is one of the few opportunities average citizens have to participate in and influence the political process. Democrats in the state are concerned about this initiative, since the late Senator Paul Wellstone developed the movement that ultimately put him in office through this channel. Mitch Rossow has developed a precinct organization training program, and a training program for caucus conveners. Precinct organizing is the next step after caucuses and its the quickest way for citizens to take back their local representation and eventually state legislature and statewide offices. The enemy of the Republican is the Republican. While Democrats in the state post training videos well before caucuses, and have programs to bring volunteers in to help their caucus attendees understand the process, republicans never got around to doing much of anything to help local precincts with their caucuses. Now they want to do away with it entirely. Moral of the story; the MNGOP talks a lot about democracy and inclusiveness, but doesn’t walk the talk. One wonders what it is that they actually do; Not much of anything. Most of the time the state party is whining and asking the local political units for help. On the DFL side, it’s the reverse. Maybe there a lesson there for the entrenched perfumed princes, hidden behind a security wall at their office in Cedar Riverside. What a joke. With so many new participants this year, maybe a new crop of leaders is being harvested. It can’t happen soon enough. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating and X Government Cars.

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Podcast 471

Trump’s Sudden Inevitability. The shouting match between Senator Rubio, Senator Ted Cruz and Donald Trump in the Texas Debate recently, doesn’t change the almost daily lame reporting from the campaign trail and the utter emptiness of what they call ‘analysis’ these days. Now suddenly Donald Trump is the ‘inevitable’ candidate. Now suddenly there will be a contested Republican National Convention. Now suddenly the world quakes at the prospect of Donald J. Trump, President. Now suddenly Trump can beat Hillary Clinton, forget what was said earlier. Reporters, TV Stars, ‘consultants’ and ‘analysts’, Talk Radio Clowns and even the Pope can’t resist inserting themselves into ‘the process’ whatever that is. What a process it is. Thanks to the idiots at the RNC we have an almost weekly political wrestling match, with the winner declared before the show is over, because of the barbs thrown and the jabs and thrusts and innuendo. Why not do away with voting entirely and just have people call a number for their candidate at the end of these cage matches, and declare the winner with a mix of votes and judgements by the perfumed princes of media, chosen to look really serious and ask the candidates questions. Ted Cruz is George Washington. No Wait! Ted Cruz is the New Reagan. Trump is Mussolini. Clinton is Jimmy Carter. Bernie Sanders is uh…Larry David. The predictions from the ‘experts’. Trump has a lock on the nomination, even though we’ve only had two caucuses and two primaries, but there it is people. Step right up! See the bearded lady and the midget perform! The voters? The voters you say? Oddly enough The Bob Davis Podcasts is traveling, speaking with and listening to actual regular people and here in the South there are a lot of Trump signs and bumperstickers on brand new cars. People seem angry, and frustrated and ready to stick it to the man, and don’t seem to be taking it any more seriously than the half time show at the Super Bowl. Why should they? Meanwhile, once again the country is not falling apart. The infrastructure is not crumbling. People seem to be miraculously going about their business despite all the magpies telling them how to live and what to think. Have they already made a decision to stick it to the man? Only time will tell. Sponsored by X Government Cars and Brush Studio.

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