Photo Finish-Down To The Wire-Election 2018-Podcast 767

Photo Finish-Down To The Wire-Election 2018-Podcast 767

With just about two weeks to go until election day 2018 polls are showing tighter races. Suddenly the narratives and storylines the media loves are thrown to the wind. Find out what’s changing in Photo Finish-Down To The Wire-Election 2018-Podcast 767.

Listen To The Election 2018 Series

Especially relevant are the series of podcasts I did looking into all the so called ‘toss up races’. What I found is detailed in that series. Listen to those podcasts here.

House Senate and Governor’s Elections Are Tightening

In addition what I suggested in my series on the midterms is many of these house, senate and governor’s elections would be close anyway. Sure enough across the country polls show tightening races as we come down to the wire.

Media Bias?

Are media elites in Washington and New York City operating from a world view that sees the possibility of a so called ‘blue wave‘ election when there hasn’t been much evidence to support this view? Find out in Photo Finish-Down To The Wire-Election 2018-Podcast 767.

A Primer on Polls. Again.

Finally there are the polls. In this free wheeling podcast I give subscribers and listeners another quick primer on the polls. Polls do not ‘predict’. Polls do not ‘say’. Closer elections make it more difficult for pollsters to ‘predict’ outcomes.

One Poll To Watch Out For

The New York Times/Sienna College poll is singled out in this podcast as problematic. This poll is showing wide variances in its results for candidates in Tennessee, Minnesota and many other places. Should democrats and republicans believe this particular poll. In the absence of any other polls to trend I would tell my listeners to be very dubious of this poll. I’ll tell you why in Photo Finish-Down To The Wire-Election 2018-Podcast 767.

In conclusion the mad rush to analyze the impact of news events on the election, on a day to day basis, is probably a mistake.

This one is going down to the wire to a photo finish!

Sponsored by Citizens Council For Health Freedom and John D Scott Personal Injury Lawyer

Photo Finish-Down To The Wire-Election 2018-Podcast 767

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Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755

A series of podcasts dedicated to the so called toss up races for the Senate, Governors and House in 2018’s Midterm Election. Most notable in Part 3 are Minnesota’s toss ups. Find out why in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.

Dive Deep

These days podcasters can dive deep by doing a series of podcasts on one subject. One of my missions at the Bob Davis Podcasts is to provide the antidote to the prattling and predictions.

So I am diving deep!

What IS a Toss Up?

It’s especially relevant that I am reviewing the data and details about states and districts for this series. One of my takeaways is what political scientists and commentators view as a toss up is entirely up to their judgement.

One man’s toss up is another man’s lean republican, or lean democrat.

Story Lines Are Click Bait and Influence Voters

My issue is these predictions create their own story lines. These ‘predictions’ can influence voters negatively.

This Year’s Story Line

This year the story line is republicans will lose the House and Senate and some Governorships because of the antics of President Donald Trump. Is this true?

Learn more in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.

Minnesota Center Stage

In 2018 Minnesotans elect a Governor, two Senators and eight Congressman. There are also contested statewide races like Attorney General and State Auditor. Moreover Senator Tina Smith is running in her first election after Governor Dayton appointed her to the Senate. We have a lot going on in our state.

Finally so called experts say there are four toss up races in Minnesota this year. Two democrat and two traditionally republican House districts.

Find out if I think it is true in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.

No Predictions No Partisanship

In conclusion I don’t make predictions or try to make the data ‘lean’ on way or another. I don’t make judgements based on rumors in these districts. I give you the existing data on the district and let you make your own prediction.

Listen To This Series. Know What To Watch For On Election Night

Bottom line, if you listen to this series of podcasts on election night, you’ll know where to look and what races to watch to make an informed prediction about the election’s outcome and what it may or may not mean.

(Editor’s Note: Heads up if you’re using Ballotpedia to check presidential voting stats for individual house districts. One set of data in particular has caused problems for me. A drop down chart purporting to show house election results by HOUSE district is in fact by STATE HOUSE district, In the case of the second district this showed a huge advantage for Trump. It is only in state HOUSE districts, apparently and not overall. A similar chart from the Daily Koz, ON the Daily Koz shows actual house districts and a much closer result. Still a win for Trump in the 2nd in 2016. Despite this update, I still feel the toss up race in 2018 will be in Minnesota’s 3rd district. I did not use this data set for every house race. I don’t think it changes whether a district leans one way or another or is a toss up since I based my analysis on other factors.)

Sponsored by The Water Butler Water Purification Systems and John D Scott Personal Injury Lawyer

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755

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Toss Up House Elections 2018 Part 2-Bob Davis Podcast 754

Toss Up House Elections 2018 Part 2-Bob Davis Podcast 754

Second in a series of podcasts detailing the so called toss up races in the 2018 midterm elections. Most noteworthy here are my observations about whether many of these elections are actually toss ups. Find out why I say this in Toss Up House Elections 2018 Part 2-Bob Davis Podcast 754.

Trump’s Future Hangs In The Balance

From Iowa, to Illinois. Kansas to Kentucky in this podcast you’ll find out why the media says the future of Donald Trump’s administration hangs in the balance. You’ll also find out whether the predicted ‘blue wave’ could be reality. Or not.

Details Without Partisanship

As I have said many times, one of the things our media loves to do these days is predict the future, The reason I am producing this series of podcasts is to give you the existing conditions in each of these districts without partisan comment or predictions. This series includes the Senate toss ups, and the Governor’s toss ups and part one of the house toss ups.

How Close Are They?

How close is the race in Illinois’ northwestern suburbs that make up the 6th district? What about all the predictions about 12th district which stretches from the working class Saint Louis suburbs across the river, all the way to the southern tip of the Land of Lincoln? Especially relevant here are predictions about Kentucky’s 6th district, which the president won by 17 points. When a candidate for president wins a state by over twenty points, is there a potential for backlash? Learn more in Toss Up House Elections 2018 Part 2-Bob Davis Podcast 754.

Telling The Voter What’s Going To Happen Before The Vote

These days it doesn’t matter whether you’re on network television or You Tube. If you have a national talk radio show or are a podcaster. Everyone wants to tell the voter what’s going to happen before it happens. If you listen to this series of my podcasts you’ll know the situation in these districts. You’ll know what races to watch on election night.

What IS The Situation?

Once the voters decides for themselves who their voting for on election night, they can sit back and watch the results knowing what races to look for. Why? Because someone looked at all the key races and without partisanship or rancor laid out what the situation is.

Fortune Tellers

Finally, many of these districts have no polling unless its done by partisan groups or political parties. Predictions are being made based on the 2016 election or because one party or another said they were ‘targeting’ that race. In conclusion our politics are too fluid for political fortune tellers to be accurate.

Sponsored by John D Scott Personal Injury Lawyer and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

Toss Up House Elections 2018 Part 2-Bob Davis Podcast 754

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