Podcast 541

Podcast 541. Electoral College Yoga. Get ready to twist your brain into pretzel like shapes as I talk about the electoral college, polls, and what the benchmarks for Election 2016 are so far. I’ll do another benchmark in about a month and one just before the election in late October, or early November. There are a lot of caveats on polling data. While most media people and their viewers seem to want to talk about national presidential preference polls, the proof of the pudding is in the state by state polls. The United States does not elect its presidents with a national vote. In fact, a presidential election is fifty state elections. Voters are selecting a slate of electors, chosen and voting generally according to state law and state party rules. So when you hear one candidate is ‘ahead’ over another in a national poll it really doesn’t mean anything. In 2008 and again in 2012 Republicans in particular were so hopeful based on national preference polls that if you said McCain or Mitt Romney wasn’t going to win, you were ‘raining on the parade’. But, if you looked closely at state polls in those election cycles, the outcome was not a surprise. State polls have their own problems; Smaller sample size, different polling methodologies, and in some states they are no polls until just before the election. While its not advisable to compare different polls of different sources and methodologies, we do it all the time. We’re looking for trends primarily. Currently while Donald J. Trump leads Hillary Clinton in a national presidential preference poll, the state polls tell a completely different story. It’s not a good story for republicans. The case isn’t closed. Trump still has time, but time is fleeting. I don’t support any candidate. I’m not working for any candidate. I’m not going to tell you how to vote. I’m also not going to spin the polling data to make you think something can happen, or is going to happen. If you want the straight talk on what’s going on, the Bob Davis Podcasts is the place to check back for these benchmark state-by-state analyses as we progress to Election Day 2016. Sponsored by Karow Contracting and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.

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Podcast 489

New York Primary Results. The results of the New York Presidential Primary are in. Now sit back and watch the story lines change. Surprise! After a day of voter confusion and typical New York statements from election officials about investigations, the New York Primary Results are in. Donald Trump won roughly 60 percent of the Republican votes, and Hillary Clinton managed about 57 percent of the Democratic votes in a slightly closer race. The most interesting outcome of this presidential preference poll is which republican candidate came in second. While Trump celebrates a win large enough for him to control a lion’s share of the delegates from the Empire State, Ohio Governor John Kasich ran a good second, and Texas Senator Ted Cruz came in a distant third, which should be enough to change the media story lines from ‘Ted Cruz is posing a strong challenge to Trump’, to whether or not John Kasich could be the nominee for the republicans in a contested republican convention this summer. The next primaries favor Trump and especially Kasich. Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island will hold primaries on April 26th. While most analysts expect Trump to win most of the delegates, many will be keeping a close eye on Kasich. Is the republican establishment working for Trump opponents in states that favor them? Recent polls from Wisconsin suggest that might be true. More establishment figures as well as candidates seem to be pointing toward a contested convention. With the establishment concerned about the so called ‘down-ticket’; the US Senate and House, chances are Trump and Cruz — who don’t poll well against Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders in a head to head match ups — may not be able to get the nomination if they can’t get the required 1237 majority of delegates on the first ballot. This is the main thing to pay attention to in the next few weeks. Ignore the pundits and the exit poll nonsense and focus on the next spate of primaries. Finally, the New York Times reports voters ‘disillusioned’ by primary races that depend on delegate elections, not the popular vote. Are they being sidelined or were voters always sidelined in these state primaries and caucuses? Sponsored by Brush Studio and X Government Cars.

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Podcast 245

Election Eve. The first of two podcast over the next 24 hours to get you up to speed on the spin, sandbagging and screeching in the final hours of the 2014 election cycle. Podcast 246 will take an in depth look at the polls and will be ready for Tuesday morning. Podcast 245 is in a little more relaxed setting, and calls attention to some of the things people are writing and saying the polls say, which have no basis. Meanwhile, the next two days are the most difficult for the punditry and the media as campaigns wind down, few new polls are released, and we wait for the votes to be counted. Some people are already sick of the election coverage, especially if you have been watching the news channels (mainly because the incessant political advertising is driving people over the edge), yet others are just starting to pay attention. Most of the polls at this late hour are all within their statistical margin of error, and therefore not conclusive about which candidates and parties have the edge or momentum. While there are one or two notable exceptions, the networks and pundits drive ahead with story lines and claims that the Republicans will take the Senate. While the GOP will gain Senate seats, whether they gain a majority is an open question. Stories this weekend about the Democrats predicting big wins for the Republicans, may actually be an effort to galvanize Democrat supporters to vote, especially when they come from The New York Times, and the Washington Post. In Minnesota, where the races are tightening to within less than ten points in the Gubernatorial Race (and more ominously a tie in the Northeastern part of the state, which is very unusual), and ten points in the Senate race, the Star Tribune runs a story about Senator Franken’s Net Neutrality cause, with little mention of opponent Mike McFadden, on a day in which the two candidates debated. The truth? This may turn out to be one of the most unusual, and therefore historic races in US Political history. The reason? Almost no one can predict what restive voters will actually end up doing. Election returns and final results may be delayed well into the night, and until January 6th at the latest, if run off elections are called for, or if recounts are demanded in close races. Another interesting development is the sudden appearance of pundits either blaming the President (from right and left) for the democrat problems, or making excuses for him. While the President has raised a lot of money for Democrat candidates, many campaign managers feel it was a mistake for some candidates not to distance themselves from the President, earlier and more loudly. And now the sudden predictions of how the White House will become interested in negotiation and compromise. While that is a possibility, President Obama may dig in his heels, and try to rally progressives for a future Elizabeth Warren presidential run. For all the talk about how the President is surrounded by bumblers, it seems like his obstinance, resistance to debate and diversity of opinion, postponing decisions or making outright mistakes can only be blamed on him. How President Obama deals with a Republican House and a newly Republican Senate (which is by no means guaranteed) will be the biggest political story of 2015. Sponsored by X Government Cars and Depotstar. 

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