Podcast 541

Podcast 541. Electoral College Yoga. Get ready to twist your brain into pretzel like shapes as I talk about the electoral college, polls, and what the benchmarks for Election 2016 are so far. I’ll do another benchmark in about a month and one just before the election in late October, or early November. There are a lot of caveats on polling data. While most media people and their viewers seem to want to talk about national presidential preference polls, the proof of the pudding is in the state by state polls. The United States does not elect its presidents with a national vote. In fact, a presidential election is fifty state elections. Voters are selecting a slate of electors, chosen and voting generally according to state law and state party rules. So when you hear one candidate is ‘ahead’ over another in a national poll it really doesn’t mean anything. In 2008 and again in 2012 Republicans in particular were so hopeful based on national preference polls that if you said McCain or Mitt Romney wasn’t going to win, you were ‘raining on the parade’. But, if you looked closely at state polls in those election cycles, the outcome was not a surprise. State polls have their own problems; Smaller sample size, different polling methodologies, and in some states they are no polls until just before the election. While its not advisable to compare different polls of different sources and methodologies, we do it all the time. We’re looking for trends primarily. Currently while Donald J. Trump leads Hillary Clinton in a national presidential preference poll, the state polls tell a completely different story. It’s not a good story for republicans. The case isn’t closed. Trump still has time, but time is fleeting. I don’t support any candidate. I’m not working for any candidate. I’m not going to tell you how to vote. I’m also not going to spin the polling data to make you think something can happen, or is going to happen. If you want the straight talk on what’s going on, the Bob Davis Podcasts is the place to check back for these benchmark state-by-state analyses as we progress to Election Day 2016. Sponsored by Karow Contracting and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 35:00 — 80.1MB) | Embed

Subscribe: RSS

Podcast 510

Final Primary Vote in Deadwood. We began coverage of the 2016 presidential preference primary season way back in summer of 2015, picking up the campaign trail in late January in Iowa, onto South Carolina, south to Florida, Texas and the south. It seems fitting to end primary 2016 coverage in a place no mainstream media will be on June 7th, 2016. South Dakota. Specifically, Deadwood, South Dakota; from Gold Rush to Wild Bill, to today’s gambling and tourism, Deadwood is representative of South Dakota west of the Missouri river, dominated by hills, mining and ranching. East of the Missouri, it’s all about farming and some great small cities, like Sioux Falls. South Dakota is the 17th largest state in size, but only boasts roughly 860,000 residents. As one of the people interviewed in Deadwood said on this podcast, “We’re not going to decide anything, but that’s ok”. My friend Brad Butturff retired to Deadwood recently. Over the years he has become quite the authority on this small city in the hills and is a font of knowledge about it. Brad joins me on this podcast, from the sidewalk in front of his home in the presidential section of Deadwood. We spent the day talking about the area’s rich history, took a tour of the historic Adams House in Deadwood, and visited a polling place. All in all, a great way to spend the final day of an uproarious, unpredictable and thoroughly depressing election, so far. But, after all, tomorrow is another day. Sponsored by X Government Cars and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul. (Editor’s Note: I refer to the Homestake mine as Homestead mine. This is a throwback from my time in Pittsburgh where there is a Homestead neighborhood.)

Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 31:30 — 72.1MB) | Embed

Subscribe: RSS

http://www.thebobdavispodcasts.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/The-Bob-Davis-Podcast-458.mp3

Podcast 509

Final Primary In South Dakota. A gonzo talk podcast from the driveway aboard Mobile Podcast Command as we load in and run through the checklists before final departure to the Mount Rushmore State. Why South Dakota? First it’s been awhile since a road trip. Second, coverage of the Presidential Preference Primaries and Caucuses began with Wisconsin Governor Walker’s candidacy announcement last summer, continued into Iowa in February, onto South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, on through to Texas and back home in the first couple of weeks of March. So it is a fitting end that one of the states with the latest primaries, as opposed to the earliest, is South Dakota. While all eyes are focused on the June 7th primary in California, because Bernie Sanders is giving Hillary Clinton fits there, do you think anyone is going to cover voting in South Dakota? That’s why I am going. Aside from the fact that South Dakota is awesome, from the Sturgis celebration to Deadwood, Mount Rushmore, Rapid City and more. Even with the contest between Sanders and Clinton in the Golden State, the media still seems to be focused on finding some negative way to define ‘presumptive’ republican nominee Donald Trump and by extension, the Republican Party. First it was Trump the authoritarian. Then it was Trump the fascist with his incitements to violence – which as an aside seems to be on the other side, with ‘anti-trump protesters’ spitting at passive Trump supporters and my sense is this gets the New York Developer more votes and may just put him in the White House but I digress. Suddenly Trump is Zachary Taylor, 12th president of the United States, and the Republican Party is the Whig Party. Is this an apt comparison? Maybe, even with the scare quotes to describe Taylor and Whigs, but then again, kind of not really. Politics feels like heavy metal, the energy is so low and the results so negative. It’s gonna be good to get out on the road. Sponsored by Brush Studio and Hydrus.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 42:30 — 97.3MB) | Embed

Subscribe: RSS