Podcast 541

Podcast 541. Electoral College Yoga. Get ready to twist your brain into pretzel like shapes as I talk about the electoral college, polls, and what the benchmarks for Election 2016 are so far. I’ll do another benchmark in about a month and one just before the election in late October, or early November. There are a lot of caveats on polling data. While most media people and their viewers seem to want to talk about national presidential preference polls, the proof of the pudding is in the state by state polls. The United States does not elect its presidents with a national vote. In fact, a presidential election is fifty state elections. Voters are selecting a slate of electors, chosen and voting generally according to state law and state party rules. So when you hear one candidate is ‘ahead’ over another in a national poll it really doesn’t mean anything. In 2008 and again in 2012 Republicans in particular were so hopeful based on national preference polls that if you said McCain or Mitt Romney wasn’t going to win, you were ‘raining on the parade’. But, if you looked closely at state polls in those election cycles, the outcome was not a surprise. State polls have their own problems; Smaller sample size, different polling methodologies, and in some states they are no polls until just before the election. While its not advisable to compare different polls of different sources and methodologies, we do it all the time. We’re looking for trends primarily. Currently while Donald J. Trump leads Hillary Clinton in a national presidential preference poll, the state polls tell a completely different story. It’s not a good story for republicans. The case isn’t closed. Trump still has time, but time is fleeting. I don’t support any candidate. I’m not working for any candidate. I’m not going to tell you how to vote. I’m also not going to spin the polling data to make you think something can happen, or is going to happen. If you want the straight talk on what’s going on, the Bob Davis Podcasts is the place to check back for these benchmark state-by-state analyses as we progress to Election Day 2016. Sponsored by Karow Contracting and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.

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Podcast 473

Super Tuesday. Final thoughts from Norman, Oklahoma as this Road Trip draws to a close, On the eve of Super Tuesday, 2016. A dozen or so states and territories have primaries or caucuses scheduled for democrat and republican parties. The media has covered — and will continue to cover — this primary season like a general election and now we have arrived at the second big day after Iowa’s Caucuses a month or so ago … Super Tuesday. For people wondering who to vote for. For people who think this is the actual election. For people who believe the charlatans on talk radio, and the talking heads on TV, and the blow hards at the local political meetings telling you what you should do; Some points to ground you. This is not a general election. These candidates are running to amass delegates to the party convention. Delegates who probably won’t even vote to nominate the candidate they may or may not be pledged to when the final vote for the nomination comes at the end of the mainline party conventions this summer. Candidates are coming to your state and your town to talk to the movers and shakers in the parties, and they’re making deals behind the scenes while the media covers the little shows they put on for the public called ‘retail political’ events. They’re all the same. Meanwhile our news media focuses on personalities, innuendo, open fights, name calling and other antics. Why? It’s the fire on the prairie, the war in the mountains. It’s what produces clicks and views and it’s what keeps the perfumed princes of media in their chairs, and in five thousand dollar suits and one thousand dollar shoes. The country needs new thinking, new ideas and new action to bring in the new economy that is out there, coming into the world, whether the czars in Washington and New York and Hollywood, and Silicon Valley want it. We need a government that protects our constitutional rights and secures our defense, and does little else. We need policies that free the individual, provide economic opportunity for everyone, and gets out of our way. Is this represented in the political mess that is the ‘primary election cycle 2016’? Sponsored by Pride of Homes and X Government Cars. 

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Podcast 466

South Carolina BBQ and Kasich. In Greenville, South Carolina on the night of the Republican Debate at Clemson. Hear what a Governor John Kasich event at Mutt’s BBQ in Mauldin, South Carolina sounds like. Hear John Kasiche’s stump speech. Which is why this podcast is entitled, South Carolina BBQ and Kasich. In the wake of Justice Scalia’s death, constitutionalists republicans forget the constitution and bemoan the possibility that sitting President Obama may appoint a liberal justice, swaying the court to the left. Some suggest the President avoid an appointment ‘in an election year’ (which the constitution makes no provisions for), or that the Senate refuse to hold hearings or confirm this president’s appointment, waiting for the ‘new’ president, which they assume will be republican, a distinct contravention of the Senate’s duties outlined in the constitution. Meanwhile, it may be painful to quote Hillary Clinton but ‘elections have consequences’. Had republicans been able to elect Mitt Romney, a republican would be filling the vacancy created by the untimely death of the Justice. Perhaps this is a good lesson to remember for the GOP heading into 2016, as ‘establishment’ republicans throw a tantrum because showmen like Trump and Cruz are crushing establishment candidates like Bush, Rubio, and Katich, at least according to polls. We’ll see what happens when South Carolina Republicans vote on February 20th. Meanwhile, the media does its best to sell all of America on the idea that South Carolina and South Carolinians are ‘quirky’, ‘conservative’, ‘moderate’, ‘different’ or fill in the blank with your own superlative. Myths that continue to dominate the political narrative, all the way through the debates. This is a ‘gut punch’ kind of state, they say. So, the candidates did their best to gut punch each other at the debates. After this weekend’s debate performance, one wonders when state party leaders across this country will take a look at a primary system that puts candidates in a cage, and forces them to answer questions from TV Stars. First, it elevates the media to a position it doesn’t deserve. Second, it seems to force the candidates to not just act craven, and rude, but to be so. This is the process that brings the cream to the top in US politics? I don’t think so. The cool thing about this event was the music. All the campaigns use music to stage their events, but whoever did this one, did a great job. This podcast includes a lot of the music they chose to stage the event. Sponsored by Brush Studio and X Government Cars. 

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