Podcast 541

Podcast 541. Electoral College Yoga. Get ready to twist your brain into pretzel like shapes as I talk about the electoral college, polls, and what the benchmarks for Election 2016 are so far. I’ll do another benchmark in about a month and one just before the election in late October, or early November. There are a lot of caveats on polling data. While most media people and their viewers seem to want to talk about national presidential preference polls, the proof of the pudding is in the state by state polls. The United States does not elect its presidents with a national vote. In fact, a presidential election is fifty state elections. Voters are selecting a slate of electors, chosen and voting generally according to state law and state party rules. So when you hear one candidate is ‘ahead’ over another in a national poll it really doesn’t mean anything. In 2008 and again in 2012 Republicans in particular were so hopeful based on national preference polls that if you said McCain or Mitt Romney wasn’t going to win, you were ‘raining on the parade’. But, if you looked closely at state polls in those election cycles, the outcome was not a surprise. State polls have their own problems; Smaller sample size, different polling methodologies, and in some states they are no polls until just before the election. While its not advisable to compare different polls of different sources and methodologies, we do it all the time. We’re looking for trends primarily. Currently while Donald J. Trump leads Hillary Clinton in a national presidential preference poll, the state polls tell a completely different story. It’s not a good story for republicans. The case isn’t closed. Trump still has time, but time is fleeting. I don’t support any candidate. I’m not working for any candidate. I’m not going to tell you how to vote. I’m also not going to spin the polling data to make you think something can happen, or is going to happen. If you want the straight talk on what’s going on, the Bob Davis Podcasts is the place to check back for these benchmark state-by-state analyses as we progress to Election Day 2016. Sponsored by Karow Contracting and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.

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Podcast 534-Bob Davis Podcast Radio Show-38

Podcast 534-Bob Davis Podcast Radio Show-38. Posting this week’s radio show, with new content, from Rapid City, South Dakota. The radio show produced in Wall, South Dakota just outside the famous Wall Drug…which is actually pretty cool. In Podcast 534-Bob Davis Podcast Radio Show-38, a number of topics covered during this week’s podcast with new content added. For one thing, the rumors that somehow the republicans will ‘Dump Trump’ persist. It’s more than pure comedy when people who supported the Republican establishment’s embrace of Trump with full throated enthusiasm are scrambling to distance themselves from the Republican Candidate after his comments regarding the parents of a muslim American Serviceman who was killed in action. Add to that the fact that more and more people are suddenly interested in the political process, and are sending me emails and asking me, “Who should I vote for?”, or “What’s going on”? I share my answer with listeners in this podcast, although some of you won’t like the response. Once again, we have an over stimulated population well informed on the political gossip, but poorly informed on issues; the issues that we’re actually picking a president to deal with. This doesn’t even include congressional elections. With republicans defending some pretty competitive senate races, the potential for Donald Trump’s candidacy to cause a loss of control of the Senate for the GOP, could be devastating. Remember, Trump was ‘the one who can win’, and ‘the one who can take the fight to Hillary’. Has anyone thought about the prospect of Donald Trump as president with a democrat senate? The man who has pledged to ‘spend more that Hillary’ on government stimulus? This prospect, or even worse, the specter of Trump losing the presidency and republican control of the senate has apparently just dawned on the very establishment leaders that so lovingly embraced the New York Developer as their presidential nominee just a few short weeks ago. Only time will tell what the outcome of this election will be, but it could be death knell of the republican party. The republican establishment has already killed the so called conservative movement. In the final segment of this week’s show we come to local elections. Specifically, a local election in the northern suburbs of Minneapolis and Saint Paul, challenging the current speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives, Kurt Daudt. An Elk River man is alleging that a local tea party chapter and its associated political action groups has violated Minnesota State Election Law. (Editor’s Note: I am working to validate the allegations made by Matt Stevens of Elk River. In this effort I have already uncovered some discrepancies in the citations of evidence, and some questions as to whether Stevens fully understands how the Tea Party Alliance and its associated PACS are constituted. This is material when considering whether they have violated state campaign laws. Moreover, Stevens has refused any further comment or interviews ‘until the primary’, adding fuel to the suggestion by some that this was nothing more than a dirty trick to derail the campaign against the Speaker. Those involved in the Tea Party and its PACS refuse to comment until after the primary. By law, the State of Minnesota can’t even reveal whether a complaint has actually been filed.) From here it’s on to Sturgis for the big motorcycle rally, and my favorite town in South Dakota; Deadwood. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.

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Podcast 522-BobDavis Podcasts Radio Show 34

Podcast 522-BobDavis Podcasts Radio Show 34. A tumultuous week ends in chaos and violence . Two officer involved shootings, and a sniper attack on police in Dallas, Texas which killed and wounded several officers. Further threats against police. People saying absurd and terrible things with no basis in fact, and that’s just the elected officials. News anchors, talk radio hosts, people on social media hurling accusations, name calling, explanations of what happened (especially by those who were not there), and terrible information on all these stories. A woman live streams an extraordinary event and the first reaction by FaceBook and some citizens is that people should not have the ability to live stream or post videos that might be considered ‘offensive’ or ‘controversial’? The original plan for the radio show this week was to condense Podcast 521 into three more palatable segments:  A segment focused on the decision by the FBI not to recommend indictment in the Hillary Clinton email scandal, which seems to have surprised only so called conservatives. One focused on how ill served we are by the media in general and a segment focused on a story no one is reporting; the financial situation internationally and the potential for a major breakdown due to the bad decisions that have been made by leaders on the economy. After delaying production of Podcast 522-BobDavis Podcasts Radio Show 34 to wait for more details on the big stories to break, I decided to change the opening segment and continue with the plan. Oddly enough, it all seemed to fit together. There are many problems in our society, but one of the big ones is how our media is not up to the task of dealing with the kinds of stories we’re seeing this week. Rather than investigate and report news, it advocates. Rather than investigate and advance the story so we’re better informed, it leaves that to cheeky types who yell at each other around a so-called roundtable, or interviews bystanders and calls it coverage. The population as a whole does not have the patience to learn the contours of an issue, is keen to argue and defend a position without any real knowledge on these stories, and social media seems to magnify the worst traits of the human character. Previous podcasts have discussed the possibility of unpredictable events to change our lives irrevocably. After what happened this week, I feel even more strongly that the black swan is just below the horizon. Sponsored by X Government Cars and Hydrus.

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