Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

As I do the last two podcasts in the toss up series at the Bob Davis Podcasts, more predictions of a democrat wave are most notable. Are these predictions true? We’ll find out in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Shellacking

In addition to commentators AP reported this week that republican pollsters are telling top republicans they’re in for a shellacking in November.

As a mission of the Bob Davis Podcasts I have been looking at those elections deemed ‘toss ups’ by the experts.

Conventional Wisdom Is Right Until Wrong

Especially relevant is the idea behind the mission. No predictions. Non partisan. What is the situation in these key districts in the final weeks of the election. Readers, subscribers and listeners might be surprised to learn very few public polls exist. Conventional wisdom drives most of these predictions. I detail this for each toss up in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Close Elections Don’t Always Mean Flips

From North Carolina to Texas in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756. Toss up races are simply close elections for whatever reason. Moreover most US House elections are in solid democrat or republican districts. This year some say there are more than 40 districts that will be close. Why they’re close is key.

Open Seats And Changing Geography

In some cases the district is an open seat because of retirements. In other cases, the contours of the district’s geography have changed. What was once a solid republican or democrat district is now supposedly more ‘balanced’.

Everyone Hates Congress…

Finally the real question in the 2018 midterms is whether people will vote their opinions of the president or local concerns. The old saying goes, everyone hates congress but not their congressman.

One Size Fits All Election?

In conclusion I spent a fair amount of time not only looking through the data for these districts but also watching some of the internet and TV ads for candidates. Sometimes it’s hard to tell the republican from the democrat. This is not a one size fits all election even though the media would have its viewers believe it is.

Once I finish this series in this podcast, and the next, I’ll do one more podcast with my analysis since there isn’t much time for that in these podcasts dealing with individual districts.

Sponsored by John D Scott Personal Injury Lawyer and the Water Butler Water Purification Systems

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

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2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751

2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751

These days political coverage turns elections into sporting events. My mission is to provide political coverage without making predictions. Let’s start with the Senate in 2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751.

November 6th 2018

First of all throughout this podcast I refer to election day as November 7th 2018. In fact it’s November 6th, 2018. Until election day, many of the questions people have about outcomes will remain unanswered. I’ll tell you why.

Statewide Races

Furthermore commentators love to make national predictions. It’s important to remember these are individual state elections. Despite efforts by the media to make you think these are national elections, they aren’t. They’re local elections. Find out more in 2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751.

The Stakes Are High

Especially relevant are the stakes. The future of Donald Trump’s presidency is in the balance with these Midterm Elections regardless of the local and national issues driving them.  Much of the coverage of the 2018 midterm elections hinges on this truth.

Key Races

What it comes down to are about 6 or 7 key races in various states around the country. As we get closer to election day (November 6th 2018, by the way) the line up of so called toss up races might change.

Holding The Majority

Republicans currently hold 50 seats in the US Senate with one vacant seat. Democrats hold 48. 2 Independents caucus with democrats giving them 49 votes potentially. With Vice President Mike Pence, the republicans can count on a 51 seat majority.

Arizona’s governor will appoint a replacement for the late John McCain, giving the republicans a potential 52 vote majority.

Will republicans hold that majority?

Making Useless Predictions

Finally I am so tired of hearing these know it alls making predictions based on primary vote results and conventional wisdom. As you’ll hear in 2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751 polling is pretty thin in some key races. It’s about time someone covered the story without telling you who’s going to win.

Trump’s Twitter Feed

In conclusion we’ll cover about 7 senate races worth talking about. Will the president’s twitter feed and rally machine help republicans or hurt them?

As far as predictions, I remember a sports writer’s response when I asked him which team was going to win the big game Sunday. He said “That’s why we play the game!”

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2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751

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Doug Jones Beats Roy Moore-Trump-AlabamGOP Chaos-Podcast 685

Doug Jones Beats Roy Moore-Trump-Alabama-GOP Chaos-Podcast 685

Is the South suddenly turning blue? Democrats have handed the GOP a shocking defeat in the Alabama US Senate Race. Coverage in Doug Jones Beats Roy Moore-Trump-Alabama-GOP Chaos-Podcast 685.

A Stinging Defeat

What are the takeaways from this race? What about winners and losers? Where do the President and Republicans in the Senate go from here? Where does the President’s former chief strategist Steve Bannon go from here?

Comedy of Errors

This was a race that captured the whole country’s attention. First there was the botched appointment of Luther Strange to the Senate Seat held by Jeff Sessions by an embattled Governor. A controversial primary election followed. Especially relevant were salacious allegations of misconduct leveled against republican candidate Judge Roy Moore. We’ll talk about it in Doug Jones Beats Roy Moore-Trump-Alabama-GOP Chaos-Podcast 685.

Welcome To The Blue South?

This is the second state to elect a democrat in a state wide race this fall. With Virginia electing a democrat governor in November and now a Senator in Alabama in December republicans are suddenly concerned about a lot more than their majority in the US Senate. What about the 2018 races coming up?

The Tax Bill Suddenly Got More Expensive

Republicans have a thin majority in the Senate. With the democrats adding a seat and a few republicans soft on the President’s agenda, suddenly passing legislation like the Tax ‘Reform’ Bill, Confirmations and Treaty Votes will be a little more uphill. In 2018 you can be sure past histories of congressmen and senators and their relationships with women will be on the ballot. But there’s more.

Get That Old Religion

In Doug Jones Beats Roy Moore-Trump-Alabama-GOP Chaos-Podcast 685 we’ll talk about the failure of something called ‘Republican Populism‘ in Alabama. Truth is, many people have overlooked Roy Moore’s decidedly far right and ‘populist’ political ideas because of the allegations against him. While those allegations certainly had an effect, his politics couldn’t have helped.

Time For A Plan

Finally, do republicans have a plan for the future beyond, “We can’t let democrats win”. Is there a plan beyond barnstorming politicians who say whatever enters their mind and blame of the media? We’ll talk about it in Doug Jones Beats Roy Moore-Trump-Alabama-GOP Chaos-Podcast 685.

Trump Has To Take The Blame

The president, his former chief strategist and the republican party have suffered a stinging defeat. The idea was, go out and campaign for our guy because he is our guy and we can’t afford another ‘liberal’ democrat in the senate. Well, that is exactly what happened. President Trump has no one else to blame for this defeat, but himself.

(Editor’s Note: A late night meant I was a little fuzzy with my Senate numbers. With the GOP losing this seat they lose a vote in the Senate. Democrats gain one. So it’s GOP 51, DEM 49. Add two independents who caucus with democrats…and it’s 51 51. With a soft majority for the republicans – they don’t necessarily vote as a block – the future could be uphill for the President and Republicans.)

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

Doug Jones Beats Roy Moore-Trump-Alabama-GOP Chaos-Podcast 685

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