Podcast 554-Latest Election State By State Polls

Podcast 554-Latest Election State By State Polls. For you political junkies, which includes me, it’s been a month since the last analysis of political polls state by state, and I promised another one at the end of September, 2016. If you want to compare the two state by state poll podcasts to really get a sense of movement check out Podcast 541. I do not intend to analyze the debate. I will not tell you who won the debate. I will not tell you whether people pay attention to the debates. None of the current state by state polls were taken after the debates so they do not reflect the effects on either candidate of the debates. With this in mind, over 80 million people watched the September 26th debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. The next state-by-state poll roundup podcast at the end of October will show what effect – if any – the debates may or may not have had. The biggest change between this podcast and the podcast in late August is that there are now more ‘toss up’ states — that is states with poll averages for president within the margin of error. In Podcast 554-State By State Polls, I am drawing on data from Real Clear Politics. Follow the link directly to an interactive electoral map of the United States and follow along, or may your own map. The tightening could be knock on effects from Clinton’s bad week of September 11th, or it could just be due to more polls closer to the election, when respondents start paying attention and are more likely to give responses. You’ll have to listen for my conclusions about whether more toss up states mean anything, but for the most part, both candidates are within the margins in 2012 and 2008 in the states they lead, or are trading leads. The big questions remain Florida, Ohio, Pennsyvania, Virginia, and to a lesser extent North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, and western states like Colorado, Arizona and Nevada. This is a state by state electoral election, so the national polls don’t matter, and the snap polls on who won the debate don’t matter. All that matters is the candidate’s performance, and get out the vote efforts for them in key electoral states. Listen and learn the state by state strongholds, battlegrounds, advantages and disadvantages, roughly a month out. We’ll come back at the end of October and again just before the election in early November, and see how the campaigning, media, and news events have changed the political landscape. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing of Saint Paul.

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Podcast 541

Podcast 541. Electoral College Yoga. Get ready to twist your brain into pretzel like shapes as I talk about the electoral college, polls, and what the benchmarks for Election 2016 are so far. I’ll do another benchmark in about a month and one just before the election in late October, or early November. There are a lot of caveats on polling data. While most media people and their viewers seem to want to talk about national presidential preference polls, the proof of the pudding is in the state by state polls. The United States does not elect its presidents with a national vote. In fact, a presidential election is fifty state elections. Voters are selecting a slate of electors, chosen and voting generally according to state law and state party rules. So when you hear one candidate is ‘ahead’ over another in a national poll it really doesn’t mean anything. In 2008 and again in 2012 Republicans in particular were so hopeful based on national preference polls that if you said McCain or Mitt Romney wasn’t going to win, you were ‘raining on the parade’. But, if you looked closely at state polls in those election cycles, the outcome was not a surprise. State polls have their own problems; Smaller sample size, different polling methodologies, and in some states they are no polls until just before the election. While its not advisable to compare different polls of different sources and methodologies, we do it all the time. We’re looking for trends primarily. Currently while Donald J. Trump leads Hillary Clinton in a national presidential preference poll, the state polls tell a completely different story. It’s not a good story for republicans. The case isn’t closed. Trump still has time, but time is fleeting. I don’t support any candidate. I’m not working for any candidate. I’m not going to tell you how to vote. I’m also not going to spin the polling data to make you think something can happen, or is going to happen. If you want the straight talk on what’s going on, the Bob Davis Podcasts is the place to check back for these benchmark state-by-state analyses as we progress to Election Day 2016. Sponsored by Karow Contracting and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.

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Podcast 536

Podcast 536-Midnight Thoughts. Back in the studio after a long road trip. The excitement of travel gives way to scanning the news and wondering what to talk about in this podcast. Hence, Podcast 536-Midnight Thoughts. Midnight Random thoughts perhaps? But. No. Specific observations about the role of podcasting and transcending the nonsense in day to day politics. In fact the more I talk about politics the more I feel physically revolted by it and physically almost unable to talk about it. Why? Because what is going on distracts and obscures. Our politics in the United States no longer enlightens and illuminates. Our politics is no longer a soaring bird, but a slithering ‘thing’ down in the mud and dirt and grime. It’s depressing, boring, frightening and at the same time ridiculous. While I have not lost my passion and interest in what is going on politically, I find more people inexplicably joining tribes committed to convincing those in the opposing tribes with one ridiculous argument after another, spitting out what has been drummed into them hour after hour from social media, 24 hour cable TV news, talk radio and so on. Not wanting to harp on those same themes, all I can say is it is truly Orwellian; like there really is a little man behind a curtain pulling on levers. For me, the antidote to all this is travel; actually witnessing events. When you see it go down ‘for real’, you realize many things you see and hear are designed for video. The protests at the conventions? If you were there you had to go find them because you could hardly tell they were happening. The guy climbing Trump Tower in New York? If you were on Wall Street, or on the subway, or in the Bronx you didn’t even know it was happening. Did it? Did it mean anything? What’s important? I think it’s a the conversation podcasters have with their listener/subscribers one on one, based on the inner thoughts we share. It’s one of the things podcasting can do that radio doesn’t do anymore. Maybe the best thing we can do is provide a venue that helps you have that conversation. The news these days seems more like greek theater and less like, well news. Reporting on events, gathering facts and making observations based on those facts. You all know this, because I talk about it too much. I realized while traveling and while thinking about this podcast tonight that so much of what is happening in 2016, I’ve already done detailed podcasts about. For example, podcasts about the death of the conservative ‘movement’  over the years, and we’re just starting to see people write and talk about it. So, use the search window to listen to those podcasts. Meanwhile, the travel podcasts, the podcasts reporting on breaking local news, the podcasts about deeply felt emotions are the ones that resonate with me and hopefully with you. Finally, all this feels like its leading up to something; some big thing that is epoch changing, and you know, historically pivotal. Something we’ll talk about for decades after. As the rain comes down, it’s fun to be back in the studio and talk it out. Sponsored by Karow Contracting and Hydrus.

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