Podcast 554-Latest Election State By State Polls

Podcast 554-Latest Election State By State Polls. For you political junkies, which includes me, it’s been a month since the last analysis of political polls state by state, and I promised another one at the end of September, 2016. If you want to compare the two state by state poll podcasts to really get a sense of movement check out Podcast 541. I do not intend to analyze the debate. I will not tell you who won the debate. I will not tell you whether people pay attention to the debates. None of the current state by state polls were taken after the debates so they do not reflect the effects on either candidate of the debates. With this in mind, over 80 million people watched the September 26th debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. The next state-by-state poll roundup podcast at the end of October will show what effect – if any – the debates may or may not have had. The biggest change between this podcast and the podcast in late August is that there are now more ‘toss up’ states — that is states with poll averages for president within the margin of error. In Podcast 554-State By State Polls, I am drawing on data from Real Clear Politics. Follow the link directly to an interactive electoral map of the United States and follow along, or may your own map. The tightening could be knock on effects from Clinton’s bad week of September 11th, or it could just be due to more polls closer to the election, when respondents start paying attention and are more likely to give responses. You’ll have to listen for my conclusions about whether more toss up states mean anything, but for the most part, both candidates are within the margins in 2012 and 2008 in the states they lead, or are trading leads. The big questions remain Florida, Ohio, Pennsyvania, Virginia, and to a lesser extent North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, and western states like Colorado, Arizona and Nevada. This is a state by state electoral election, so the national polls don’t matter, and the snap polls on who won the debate don’t matter. All that matters is the candidate’s performance, and get out the vote efforts for them in key electoral states. Listen and learn the state by state strongholds, battlegrounds, advantages and disadvantages, roughly a month out. We’ll come back at the end of October and again just before the election in early November, and see how the campaigning, media, and news events have changed the political landscape. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing of Saint Paul.

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Podcast 541

Podcast 541. Electoral College Yoga. Get ready to twist your brain into pretzel like shapes as I talk about the electoral college, polls, and what the benchmarks for Election 2016 are so far. I’ll do another benchmark in about a month and one just before the election in late October, or early November. There are a lot of caveats on polling data. While most media people and their viewers seem to want to talk about national presidential preference polls, the proof of the pudding is in the state by state polls. The United States does not elect its presidents with a national vote. In fact, a presidential election is fifty state elections. Voters are selecting a slate of electors, chosen and voting generally according to state law and state party rules. So when you hear one candidate is ‘ahead’ over another in a national poll it really doesn’t mean anything. In 2008 and again in 2012 Republicans in particular were so hopeful based on national preference polls that if you said McCain or Mitt Romney wasn’t going to win, you were ‘raining on the parade’. But, if you looked closely at state polls in those election cycles, the outcome was not a surprise. State polls have their own problems; Smaller sample size, different polling methodologies, and in some states they are no polls until just before the election. While its not advisable to compare different polls of different sources and methodologies, we do it all the time. We’re looking for trends primarily. Currently while Donald J. Trump leads Hillary Clinton in a national presidential preference poll, the state polls tell a completely different story. It’s not a good story for republicans. The case isn’t closed. Trump still has time, but time is fleeting. I don’t support any candidate. I’m not working for any candidate. I’m not going to tell you how to vote. I’m also not going to spin the polling data to make you think something can happen, or is going to happen. If you want the straight talk on what’s going on, the Bob Davis Podcasts is the place to check back for these benchmark state-by-state analyses as we progress to Election Day 2016. Sponsored by Karow Contracting and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.

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Podcast 481

Ted Cruz Denies Affairs. The tabloid that has a history of breaking lurid stories about the affairs of politicians and public personalities is on the hot seat with a new story about Senator Ted Cruz. The National Enquirer story alleges the presidential hopeful has had extra marital affairs with five women. Though the women’s faces were obscured in the tabloid story, two of the women have been allegedly identified as staffers for Donald Trump, Carly Fiorina and at various times Senator Cruz. Moreover there’s also evidence of a Cruz associated PAC which donated a half a million dollars to the Fiorina campaign. If that donation was ‘hush money’ as has been alleged, a far more serious allegation could be leveled against Cruz since the candidates aren’t supposed to have anything to do with PACs. Ted Cruz Denies Affairs. Senator Cruz says the story is a lie, says it was shopped to other outlets, all orchestrated by Donald Trump, since he is ‘friends’ with the publisher of the National Enquirer (based in West Palm Beach, by the way, where Trump has a residence and resort.) Trump says he had nothing to do with the story. Truth is, this ‘story’ has been floating around political and reporters circles for months, and has been talked about on twitter under #thething for at least weeks. Is it true? No one knows. Was it Trump? No one knows. It could have been Trump, but recent developments suggest former elements of the Rubio campaign shopped the story. Could have been Republican establishment types terrified of a Trump nomination, as well as a Cruz nomination, looking to clip both candidates before three critical primaries in the coming weeks in Wisconsin, New York and Pennsylvania. It could have been the Cruz campaign looking to get out in front of a potential scandal and turn it back on their number one rival, the Trump campaign. No one knows, and no one will know until the story is disproven, retracted, or the women in question come forward. At least one of them, Amanda Carpenter, passionately and vehemently denies it. Don’t put it past the establishment to do something like this. Politics gets ugly, and there are so many more months of campaigning to go. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing of Saint Paul, Pride of Homes and Hydrus.

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