Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

As I do the last two podcasts in the toss up series at the Bob Davis Podcasts, more predictions of a democrat wave are most notable. Are these predictions true? We’ll find out in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Shellacking

In addition to commentators AP reported this week that republican pollsters are telling top republicans they’re in for a shellacking in November.

As a mission of the Bob Davis Podcasts I have been looking at those elections deemed ‘toss ups’ by the experts.

Conventional Wisdom Is Right Until Wrong

Especially relevant is the idea behind the mission. No predictions. Non partisan. What is the situation in these key districts in the final weeks of the election. Readers, subscribers and listeners might be surprised to learn very few public polls exist. Conventional wisdom drives most of these predictions. I detail this for each toss up in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Close Elections Don’t Always Mean Flips

From North Carolina to Texas in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756. Toss up races are simply close elections for whatever reason. Moreover most US House elections are in solid democrat or republican districts. This year some say there are more than 40 districts that will be close. Why they’re close is key.

Open Seats And Changing Geography

In some cases the district is an open seat because of retirements. In other cases, the contours of the district’s geography have changed. What was once a solid republican or democrat district is now supposedly more ‘balanced’.

Everyone Hates Congress…

Finally the real question in the 2018 midterms is whether people will vote their opinions of the president or local concerns. The old saying goes, everyone hates congress but not their congressman.

One Size Fits All Election?

In conclusion I spent a fair amount of time not only looking through the data for these districts but also watching some of the internet and TV ads for candidates. Sometimes it’s hard to tell the republican from the democrat. This is not a one size fits all election even though the media would have its viewers believe it is.

Once I finish this series in this podcast, and the next, I’ll do one more podcast with my analysis since there isn’t much time for that in these podcasts dealing with individual districts.

Sponsored by John D Scott Personal Injury Lawyer and the Water Butler Water Purification Systems

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

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Podcast 522-BobDavis Podcasts Radio Show 34

Podcast 522-BobDavis Podcasts Radio Show 34. A tumultuous week ends in chaos and violence . Two officer involved shootings, and a sniper attack on police in Dallas, Texas which killed and wounded several officers. Further threats against police. People saying absurd and terrible things with no basis in fact, and that’s just the elected officials. News anchors, talk radio hosts, people on social media hurling accusations, name calling, explanations of what happened (especially by those who were not there), and terrible information on all these stories. A woman live streams an extraordinary event and the first reaction by FaceBook and some citizens is that people should not have the ability to live stream or post videos that might be considered ‘offensive’ or ‘controversial’? The original plan for the radio show this week was to condense Podcast 521 into three more palatable segments:  A segment focused on the decision by the FBI not to recommend indictment in the Hillary Clinton email scandal, which seems to have surprised only so called conservatives. One focused on how ill served we are by the media in general and a segment focused on a story no one is reporting; the financial situation internationally and the potential for a major breakdown due to the bad decisions that have been made by leaders on the economy. After delaying production of Podcast 522-BobDavis Podcasts Radio Show 34 to wait for more details on the big stories to break, I decided to change the opening segment and continue with the plan. Oddly enough, it all seemed to fit together. There are many problems in our society, but one of the big ones is how our media is not up to the task of dealing with the kinds of stories we’re seeing this week. Rather than investigate and report news, it advocates. Rather than investigate and advance the story so we’re better informed, it leaves that to cheeky types who yell at each other around a so-called roundtable, or interviews bystanders and calls it coverage. The population as a whole does not have the patience to learn the contours of an issue, is keen to argue and defend a position without any real knowledge on these stories, and social media seems to magnify the worst traits of the human character. Previous podcasts have discussed the possibility of unpredictable events to change our lives irrevocably. After what happened this week, I feel even more strongly that the black swan is just below the horizon. Sponsored by X Government Cars and Hydrus.

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Podcast 472

Texas. That’s all you need to say. Texas. We start on the Texas Gulf Coast at Galveston and work our way up to Beaumont, Houston, on through central Texas with an eye toward La Grange, Austin, Waco and finally to Dallas. If you woke up in one of these places, even any of the smaller towns along the way, you would know, you could only be in Texas. Along the way, lots of stories from this Road Trip so far, including the drive up the Gulf Coast through Mississippi and Alabama, and Louisiana, ending in New Orleans on Saturday night, where Mobile Podcast Command was forced to break the law, in service of a cup of chicory coffee and a pastry from Cafe Dumonde. Sadly, New Orleans seems like it is still struggling to overcome the effects of Katrina, which is probably why there are suddenly so many parking restrictions, and the parking authorities so vigilant. So out of character for this ‘anything goes’ town. In Mississippi, you pass the beautiful home of the president of the confederacy Jefferson Davis, and one can only wonder what it must have been like to leave this gorgeous home on the beach, move to a place like Richmond, to ‘run the confederacy’; a really bad decision in the long run. Did he ever make it back? Then the gulf coast, with its brand new ‘towns on stilts’…literally the houses, the stores, the cafes are all built on pylons, to withstand floods and perhaps the intense winds of hurricanes, which come every year. The Bolivar Peninsula, and Galveston where I finally found the deserted coast line I have been looking for. Finally central Texas including Houston and finally Dallas. Both of these cities are juggernauts on their own. When you combine Houston and Dallas with San Antonio, Austin and the western Texas cities, you begin to understand why this state is so important, and why it is unlike any other. Sponsored by Hydrus and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul. 

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