Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

As I do the last two podcasts in the toss up series at the Bob Davis Podcasts, more predictions of a democrat wave are most notable. Are these predictions true? We’ll find out in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Shellacking

In addition to commentators AP reported this week that republican pollsters are telling top republicans they’re in for a shellacking in November.

As a mission of the Bob Davis Podcasts I have been looking at those elections deemed ‘toss ups’ by the experts.

Conventional Wisdom Is Right Until Wrong

Especially relevant is the idea behind the mission. No predictions. Non partisan. What is the situation in these key districts in the final weeks of the election. Readers, subscribers and listeners might be surprised to learn very few public polls exist. Conventional wisdom drives most of these predictions. I detail this for each toss up in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Close Elections Don’t Always Mean Flips

From North Carolina to Texas in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756. Toss up races are simply close elections for whatever reason. Moreover most US House elections are in solid democrat or republican districts. This year some say there are more than 40 districts that will be close. Why they’re close is key.

Open Seats And Changing Geography

In some cases the district is an open seat because of retirements. In other cases, the contours of the district’s geography have changed. What was once a solid republican or democrat district is now supposedly more ‘balanced’.

Everyone Hates Congress…

Finally the real question in the 2018 midterms is whether people will vote their opinions of the president or local concerns. The old saying goes, everyone hates congress but not their congressman.

One Size Fits All Election?

In conclusion I spent a fair amount of time not only looking through the data for these districts but also watching some of the internet and TV ads for candidates. Sometimes it’s hard to tell the republican from the democrat. This is not a one size fits all election even though the media would have its viewers believe it is.

Once I finish this series in this podcast, and the next, I’ll do one more podcast with my analysis since there isn’t much time for that in these podcasts dealing with individual districts.

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Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

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Podcast 554-Latest Election State By State Polls

Podcast 554-Latest Election State By State Polls. For you political junkies, which includes me, it’s been a month since the last analysis of political polls state by state, and I promised another one at the end of September, 2016. If you want to compare the two state by state poll podcasts to really get a sense of movement check out Podcast 541. I do not intend to analyze the debate. I will not tell you who won the debate. I will not tell you whether people pay attention to the debates. None of the current state by state polls were taken after the debates so they do not reflect the effects on either candidate of the debates. With this in mind, over 80 million people watched the September 26th debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. The next state-by-state poll roundup podcast at the end of October will show what effect – if any – the debates may or may not have had. The biggest change between this podcast and the podcast in late August is that there are now more ‘toss up’ states — that is states with poll averages for president within the margin of error. In Podcast 554-State By State Polls, I am drawing on data from Real Clear Politics. Follow the link directly to an interactive electoral map of the United States and follow along, or may your own map. The tightening could be knock on effects from Clinton’s bad week of September 11th, or it could just be due to more polls closer to the election, when respondents start paying attention and are more likely to give responses. You’ll have to listen for my conclusions about whether more toss up states mean anything, but for the most part, both candidates are within the margins in 2012 and 2008 in the states they lead, or are trading leads. The big questions remain Florida, Ohio, Pennsyvania, Virginia, and to a lesser extent North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, and western states like Colorado, Arizona and Nevada. This is a state by state electoral election, so the national polls don’t matter, and the snap polls on who won the debate don’t matter. All that matters is the candidate’s performance, and get out the vote efforts for them in key electoral states. Listen and learn the state by state strongholds, battlegrounds, advantages and disadvantages, roughly a month out. We’ll come back at the end of October and again just before the election in early November, and see how the campaigning, media, and news events have changed the political landscape. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing of Saint Paul.

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Podcast 464

Welcome to Tennessee. Live from Bristol, Tennessee – The Birthplace Of Country Music. New Hampshire’s primary is history. Flush with new data and fresh story lines, every satellite news truck and reporter is rolling out of the Granite State headed for South Carolina, the third primary in election 2016. The Bob Davis Podcasts are already in the south, taking a break from the political craziness. Welcome to Tennessee, and to one of the coolest towns in Eastern Tennessee and Western Virginia: Bristol. Part of Bristol is in the Volunteer State of Tennessee and the other part is in the Old Dominion. This is a great introduction to South Carolina, because this part of Tennessee and Virginia are in the Appalachian Mountains, first settled by the Scots-Irish, English and Germans over two hundred years ago. They brought their culture with them including stories and music dating back centuries. Industrial growth from the late 1800’s and beginning of the twentieth century brought change to the people who call this part of the country home. In 1927 a Bristol area musician and performer recommended the town to a recording engineer and talent scout. The scout brought the latest recording technology to town, set up shop in a hat factory, placed an ad in a local newspaper and prepared to record. Ralph Peer’s Bristol Sessions turned out to be seminal in the development of American Roots music and the careers of artists who later became major country music stars. The Bristol Sessions are often referred to as ‘The Big Bang of Country Music’. The Birthplace of Country Music Museum in Bristol celebrates the Bristol Sessions and so much more. Take a break from the endless political nonsense going on, to get a sense of the influence this part of the country has had on the rest of the United States, and the gift the people of Appalachia have given us all. Today the south is a major economic, social and political influence, equal or greater to any other part of the country. Get set for surprises after South Carolina votes, and after the mid south primaries on Super Tuesday. (Big Thanks to Renee Rogers and Charlene Baker for meeting me at the Museum office back door on a snowy Monday, and for doing an interview for this podcast.) Sponsored by X Government Cars, Pride of Homes and Luke Team Real Estate.

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